Anonymous
Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentElections · 2 months ago

So what can the house Republicans that will try to filibuster the electoral results do besides cry and whine on Jan. 6th?? ?

They won't have enough votes to over turn anything, there won't be enough in the Senate either.“The Jan. 6 meeting is going to confirm that regardless of how many objections get filed and who signs on, they are not going to affect the outcome of the process,” said Edward B. Foley, a constitutional law professor at Ohio State University who has written extensively on the electoral process. “We can say that with clear confidence.”

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  • Tmess2
    Lv 7
    2 months ago
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    Technically, it's not a filibuster as there are limits on how long this process can take.

    To actually achieve anything is  a multi-step process.

    First, as a state's results are announced you need to file a written objection to counting that state's votes. That objection has to be signed by both a member of the House and a member of the Senate.  As of today, no Senator has announced that they will be joining the objection.  Senator-elect Tommy Tuberville has announced that he is considering it.  I could see Mitch McConnell losing the paperwork from Alabama so that Tuberville will not be seated until after January 6.  

    Second, assuming that Tuberville signs the written objection for a state, the House and Senate will then recess from the joint session to a session in their chamber.  There is a two hour limit on debate on the objection which will be followed by an immediate vote.  

    Third, actually achieving something requires getting a majority in both houses.  Depending on what happens with the Iowa seat, the Democrats will have a 222-212 or 222-211 majority in the House.  I do not see any Democrats defecting on this vote, and there are likely to be a significant number of Republicans voting against the objection (or finding a reason to be elsewhere).  Even in the Senate, the Republicans will only have a 51-48 majority (as one of the Georgia Senate seats will be vacant until there is a certified winner of the race between Perdue and Ossoff).  There are at least two Republicans who are likely to vote against the objections.  So it is unlikely that any objection will succeed.

    Fourth, to actually succeed, it will not be enough to reject the votes in one state.  Biden has 306 electoral votes.  To prevent a Biden victory, Trump needs the Trump Party to succeed in rejecting the votes in at least three states with a combined total of 37 electoral votes.  As of today, Trump and his supporters have filed cases challenging the results in eight states with a combined total of eight-four electoral votes).  Those states are Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16 electoral votes), Michigan (16 electoral votes), Minnesota (10 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), New Mexico (5 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes).  

    Fifth, if Trump succeeds in rejecting enough electoral votes, he then needs to have enough House delegations (twenty-six) vote for him as president in a contingent election.  Today, I don't think that he has enough House delegations to win.  But, to even get to a contingent election, he would need something to happen that would get both Republicans and Democrats to vote to reject the electoral votes for Biden.  So it is theoretically possible that  he could gain the votes to win a contingent election.

    Because the votes are just not there to reject any state's electoral votes, this whole process will merely delay the inevitable.  The only question is how long it will take.  And that depends on when the Party of Trump gives up the struggle.  In the best scenario, when the votes (or the support of Tommy Tuberville) aren't there for rejecting Arizona's votes, no further objections are made.   In that case, the process is over by 6 p.m. Eastern on January 6.  If they object to all eight states and use the full debate time in the House, the process will stretch into January 7 and maybe into January 8.  In theory, by objecting to every state (even the ones that Trump won), they could stretch the process by ten days or so (figuring fifteen-hour sessions and five states per day).  But there is no chance that the leadership of either house will let it stretch past January 18 or January 19.  At some point, the Party of Trump will get the message that they are embarrassing themselves by forcing additional votes and potentially damaging the Republican Party's chances in the 2022 elections.  

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