Even with Trump's drop in the polls, RealClearPolitics shows Trump slightly averaging better than 2016 in battleground states. Thoughts?

Question

I find it interesting that he is supposably performing better than 2016 in the battleground states, but sharply down from 2016 in the overall national average. Makes me think he could still win...but the popular vote gap could be even wider this year.

Update:

@ Anonymous - this is literally on the front page of the website. I took the screenshot as the race stands on Monday, October 5 in the 2016 vs. 2020 section. Maybe think twice before you call someone a liar.

Answer 1

Favorite Answer

Margin is only part of the story.  There are three key components to a poll -- margin, number of undecideds, and number supporting third party candidates.  The last two matter because undecideds are definitely up for grab and there is a historical tendency of third party candidates to bleed support as elections get closer so some of them are up for grabs.  Because candidates will not split the available voters 50-50, the larger this group, the better shape that the trailing candidate is in.  (As a candidate, I would rather a poll showing me down 4% with 20% undecided than a poll showing me down 2% with 4% undecided.  In the first, I have a real chance.  In the second, I need a miracle.)  

In 2016, Clinton plus Trump were getting around 84% of the vote in the battleground polls with Clinton getting 44% of the vote.  There was lots of room for Trump to close the gap.  (By the eve of the election, Clinton's lead was down to 1% with Clinton having gained only 1.2% of the vote and Trump up to 44% leaving 11% deciding on election day and they broke strongly for Trump).  At this point in 2020, Biden plus Trump are getting 94% of the vote with Biden at 49%.  

In other words, Trump is only doing slightly better on margin (an amount that is probably statistically insignificant) than he was four years ago, and the raw numbers are close to what Biden needs to win.  (In other words, there is less room for Trump to catch up and pass Biden on election day than there was to catch and pass Clinton on election day.)  

And one last thing to remember from 2016 as you look at the poll numbers, Clinton's lead was around 5% until Comey reopened the investigation into her e-mails.  Over the next two weeks, Clinton's numbers dropped like a rock until the eve of the election.  So what, if anything is there that could happen in the last month to change voter's minds about voting for Biden?  

Answer 2

The Democrats think they've got the silent majority, but they are out here and they'll vote November 3rd for President Trump.  No one in their right mind wants Joe and Hunter Biden and Kamala Harris.

Answer 3

Mercy polls for him.

Answer 4

I just fact checked your claim

Arizona 

Biden + 3.4

Wisconsin 

Biden + 6

Florida 

Biden + 2

Pennsylvania 

Biden + 6.6

Nth Carolina 

Biden + 1.2

Michigan 

Biden + 5.2

Ohio

Biden + 1.2

Iowa

Biden + 0.5

Nevada

Biden + 5.3

Virginia 

Biden + 11

Georgia 

Biden + 0.3

Texas

Trump + 3.2

Colorado

Biden + 10

New Mexico 

Biden + 14.5

Ya'll a lyin POS. 

Source(s): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pres...

Answer 5

You need to look at the individual states.  In most cases Biden's lead is outside the margin of error.  And he doesn't need to win all of the battleground states.  

Answer 6

Researched this just a little, and can't see it.  Most scenarios that give Trump a second term involve him winning at least seven of the battleground states in which Biden currently leads: Arizona (+3 points), Florida (+1.1 points), Georgia (+0.3 points), Iowa (+0.5 points), Michigan (+5.2 points), North Carolina (+0.8 points), and Ohio (+3.3 points).  Seems like a very big ask to me, and nearly impossible

Answer 7

He will win,before this coronavirus everyone were living a peaceful life and didn't even know he exist because of the great job he has done. If it wasn't for this Virus Trump would have won all states except NY and California easily.