If 30,000 fans packed into a stadium to see a baseball game, and behaved as fans normally do, how many new infections will there be?
Could there be as many as 5,000 new infections? Why? how does it spread to that many people? and if that is the case, that would mean that at least 5,000 of the fans coming into the game were already infected. Would it not mean that pretty much if you randomly sampled the American public that at any given time there are 20% or more of the public carrying the disease and most are not having symptoms?
If all this is true, then the virus is out of control in the USA..... How did our politicians let it get this bad in this country? Its their job to protect the people of this country......and they are failing at that Constitutional duty. Still even as of today, you do not get the sense that the politicians at the national level are taking this attack on our country seriously enough. We need to vote those in power out of office to get people who care about the American people on the job.
- fcas80Lv 71 month ago
Let's assume no social distancing in the lines to get in, the lines to walk up the ramps to your seat, your seat itself, the lines for a hot dog, etc. That's a lot of people around you. Plus, in these times people who deliberately put themselves and others at risk by attending a mass event are not wearing masks, are they? This sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.
How did the politicians let it get this bad? They underestimated the magnitude early on, they decided they know more than the experts, they refused to act decisively, and they were poor role models.
- AmyLv 71 month ago
Approximately 1% of US residents are infected, so that's 300 people bringing covid into the baseball game. But if someone is infected, then any close family or friends he attends the game with are also likely to be infected. So let's assume there are 150 pairs of infected people.
Each of them cheers and shouts during the game, spreading the virus to everyone within 10 feet in front of them. That's maybe 10 people. So altogether there are 1500 new infections.
Obviously this is only an estimate.
A cloth mask catches half of the virus particles, but over several hours the infected person will expel so many particles that this reduction won't matter.
- StephenWeinsteinLv 71 month ago
It could be up to 29,999, although that's unlikely.
If there were 5,000 new infections, that would NOT mean that least 5,000 of the fan coming into the game were already infected. One infected person can infect many others. The number of new infections can be, and usually is, many times higher than the number who were already infected, because the average already infected person causes several new infections.
It would not mean that if you randomly sampled the American public that at any given time there are 20% or more of the public carrying the disease. Because, again, with only one already infected person, there can be dozens of new infections. A few hundred already infected would be more than enough to cause 5000 new infections.
- PearlLv 71 month ago
probably lots of them