Is speculating just gambling but with an edge?

Update:

I'm referring to the stock market

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  • 2 months ago

    Definitely gambling; edge depends. I think any market expert (which I'm not) would say that buying & holding the entire S&P (or a large subset of it) would give the avg dumbo a theoretical edge. However, that's not speculating. To have an edge predicting short-term moves or short-term winners/losers requires knowing something the other market participants don't, just like beating the late lines in sports betting. Were I (or a random Joe) to speculate the market, my thought process wouldn't be better than throwing darts, so my speculations would be -EV due to slippage+commission the way an avg sports bettor's wagers are -EV due to the vig.

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    • Divide By Zero
      Lv 7
      2 months agoReport

      If you hold the stock for 50 years or whatever, you have an edge, true. The same edge as a basket of stocks, but with more variance. (Slippage is the $ lost to the bid/ask spread, which isn't a concern if you're gonna buy and hold.)

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  • zeno
    Lv 7
    2 months ago

    All gambling is speculation but studying the

    Odds and details can increase your odds of

    Winning. The better You can deal with stress

    And down turns in stocks the better you will

    Do.

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