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Anonymous
Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentElections · 3 months ago

A year and a half before an election, polls means (a) MORE than or (b) LESS than a groundhog's shadow?

Giuliani began discussing Burisma and Hunter Biden with Trump -- prompted by concerns voiced in Kiev -- in January of last year. 

Update:

Oops!~ Should be: "...polls MEAN..." 

Not "means".

3 Answers

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  • Tmess2
    Lv 7
    3 months ago

    Historically, polls this far out give very little useful information that we would not know from the results of the last election (which tells us something about the general partisan divisions in the country).

    There are three reasons for this.  First, the most hardcore supporters of primary candidates are reluctant to admit that they would be willing to support one of the other candidates running.  (They don't want it to look clear that other candidates are stronger general election candidates.)  Second, most voters do not know a lot about any of the primary candidates.  Once somebody becomes the nominee, a lot of effort will be put forth by both parties to "educate" the voters about the nominee.  So favorability ratings of candidates change a lot between the year prior to the primary and the election.  Third, for that (admittedly small) segment of voters who vote based on how the incumbent is doing, the data that matters most is the most recent data.  You don't win because the economy and global situation look good twelve months before the election.  You win because things look good the month prior to the election.

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  • don
    Lv 5
    3 months ago

    Let me help you out.Trump will win in a landslide no matter which weirdo commie the dim party chooses for Trump to beat.

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  • y
    Lv 7
    3 months ago

    Polls mean nothing this, or that, far out. The last election cycle proved to us that the polls are just another way for the two sides to manipulate info. They have become just another propaganda tool. This is now, has been a known, out in the open for quite a while. I have no idea why anyone would pay any attention to them anymore.

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