What are the chances Donald Trump gets re-elected?
As a Canadian, I’m curious to hear what Americans think Donald Trump’s chances of being re-elected are. I’m not asking whether you think he SHOULD or SHOULDN’T be, but what you think are the odds that it will happen.
I know Trump has been leading in many polls but so was Hillary Clinton when she ran against him and we all know how that went...
- Warren TLv 71 month ago
RIGHT NOW HIS CHANCES ARE PRETTY GOOD BUT THE LEFT IS WORKING OVERTIME TO MAKE SURE THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN
- TepeeLv 71 month ago
About 100% is my guess.
- AnnLv 61 month ago
Pretty darn good.
- Anonymous1 month ago
I think they're probably low.
Historically it would be an anomaly for him to be reelected. Trump is the fifth President to be elected without winning the popular vote. Of them, only one, George W Bush, managed to get reelected. But Bush benefited from lingering good feelings over his handling of the aftermath of 9/11 (and he still won by the slimmest margin of any sitting President).
He's also desperately unpopular. Trump is the only President since the invention of modern opinion polling to have never had 50% or more approval. His average approval rating, from what I've seen, is 40%. That's tied with Obama's lowest approval rating and Obama, despite being reelected, actually lost support between 2008 and 2012.
And his win in 2016 was such a fluke and so narrow. I'm not sure how much you know about the American system but basically the people don't technically vote directly for President. Instead each state has a number of "electoral college" votes equal to the number of federal legislators they have. Whoever wins in that state gets all of those votes, regardless of how much they win by. Trump was able to win in the electoral college, but in the three states which put him over the top he barely beat Clinton. In total, he got just 80,000 more votes than her (and those state's cast about 12 million votes overall). That's not a stable basis for him to hang his election on. If we look at the results of the 2018 election we see that Democrats swept all those states. Now these "mid term" races aren't necessarily predictive of the presidential race, but in 2018 turnout was incredibly high, IIRC something like 80-90% of the turnout in 2016. That means that the results are probably more indicative of the mood of the electorate.
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- SBR32277Lv 71 month ago
You certainly can't trust polls, but it is apparent Trump is by far the favorite. Many are leaving the Democratic Party because it is not the Party it used to be. The Dems only have a platform of beating/hating Trump
- SocratesLv 71 month ago
Very good, as a new CBS poll just announces.
- Anonymous1 month ago
50/50. The Democrats still had 8 years in office. 4 more for them would be still unbalanced so its not likely. Its still a Republican advantage because of that. And there are very few Repubican choices, many Dems are switching to Republican which the media is in denial of. And it's ALWAYS hard to beat an incumbent president and Dems have spent too much time and effort into anti-Trumpism rather and blatantly alienated many voters rather than building a solid agenda on why voters should choose them over Trump. Vote for me or you're stupid, a sellout etc, isnt a solid platform to win over voters.
- 1 month ago
Seems Oink Floyd is what represents Opus Dei in Rock Music I was reading notes over Pink Floyd I never understood why The Piper At The Gates Of Dawn was never releaded the movie I saw it been rekeased in Buenos Aires.
- Pearl LLv 71 month ago
i think its possible, we'll find out in nov
- Russ in NOVALv 71 month ago
I would say the odds are better than 50-50 that he will get a 2nd, and I am no fan of the Donald. It looks more and more like the Dems are going to end up with self-described socialist Bernie. Both are also supported by Russia who wants division in our country, and while they would prefer Trump (because he is totally incompetent), they would take Bernie since he wants to reduce our military influence around the world. Going from a narcissistic authoritarian president supported by the right wing-nuts to a socialist president supported by the left wing-nust would surely keep the country divided, even if Bernie is more competent and would be tempered by congress. The centrist voices in both parties are dying.