Why is Bloomberg surging in polls?
Also, why did Pete Buttigieg fall?
- Tmess2Lv 72 months ago
Up until this point, surges have been about polls. While most polls give the option of "undecided," there is something in human nature that leads people to say candidate A when they have not yet made a final decision.
Furthermore, most people are not political junkies. They do not watch debates; and they do not follow candidates closely. For general elections, the party labels help people make decisions. For the primaries, they have to deal with more imprecise labels given by the media -- conservative, moderate, liberal, progressive, etc.
Because most people are not political junkies, most of the candidates are not well known. Depending on the candidate, voters may recognize the name, but they do not know a lot about the candidate (a reason that labels matter). So voters depend a lot on what they see on the news or in advertisements.
As a result, particularly, in the primary process, it is not unusual for candidates to have surges and then fall back as voters begin to learn about the candidate. At various times, a candidate has a moment that causes the media to focus on them. At the start of this focus, the candidate surges as people start hearing good things about the candidate. But, after the initial positive coverage, you get a follow-up when reporters and other candidates bring out some negatives about the candidate. The candidate then falls back to the pack.
Think back to the 2012 Republican Primary. Over the course of 2011, one conservative after another took their turn as the top alternative to Mitt Romney. One after another, they all fell back, and Mitt Romney cruised to the nomination.
On the other hand, in 2008, Barack Obama surged late in the process and became an acceptable alternative to Hillary Clinton, ultimately winning the nomination.
For Bloomberg, there is a good reason for him surging now. First, for most of 2019, he was saying that he was not likely to run; so nobody focused on him. Since entering the race, Bloomberg has been willing to spend a lot of money on advertisements. So right now Bloomberg is getting a lot of his message to potential voters and there has not been a lot of time for the other candidates to put forward the reasons that Bloomberg is not a good choice (although Wednesday night might be a good start on the push back).
- 2 months ago
MONEY MONEY GAY GAY
- donLv 52 months ago
Doomberg is buying the nomination obviously.Pete is a horrible candidate,period.
- PhilLv 52 months ago
All will be apparent after Super Tuesday which is not too far away . if he emerges in the top three or four he has a chance, and if not he should pull out of the race.
the same goes for any other candidate.
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- rickyLv 72 months ago
Yeah, I guess he’s surged in the wrong direction. Even democrats could see that.
- MandyLv 62 months ago
You have to realize that he was surging before he actually spoke. Ads are not actually speaking. I did not watch the debate, but was listening to some discussions about it and most state that Bloomberg did not do well. I don’t know about Buttigieg.
- Amy FlowerLv 72 months ago
I heard he is a rich, successful, business man, kind of like trump but hopefully without the drama.