Probability of a consecutive event over (x) trials?
How do I calculate the chance/probability of an event with a 35% chance of success occurring 5 times in a row over the course of (x) number of trials?
So over 100 trials how many consecutive 5 successes are there? 1,000 trials? 1 million trials?
- davidLv 74 weeks agoFavorite Answer
The answer depends on the 'rules' for selecting. --- Selection with replacement or without replacement.
Ex .. Cards ... If I select a card from a standard deck and then do not put the card back before selecting another card .. that is is seletion without replacement === But if you select a card, look at it, then put it back in the deck before selecting the next .. that is selection with replacement.
... flipping a coin is selection with replacement .. if you get heads then the next time you can still get either h or t.
Assuming you have some kind of selection with replacement the 35% means probabiity of success each and every time is 0.35
P 5 successes in a row = (0.35)^5 <<< use a calculator = 0.0052522
So over 100 trials how many consecutive 5 successes are there? <<< this is ambiguous..
. I will guess that you mean EXPECTED.
... the answer is
0.0052522 X 96 = 0.5042 .... not even one time is expected.