Do you think Betelgeuse has already gone supernova relative to its space and time?

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  • 4 weeks ago

    No,

    The chances of Betelgeuse, or any other particular star, going supernova during the brief existence of modern civilization is close to zero.

    But you might get a bang out of knowing that the chances of Iran getting the bomb soon are pretty good.

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  • 4 weeks ago

    No, I do NOT believe that, but even if it has gone supernova, we would not know it for 600 years or more. There has been no neutrino blast from Betelgeuse, YET. What I "believe" or do NOT "believe" is totally irrelevent to my or your reality or our subjective respective universes.

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  • 4 weeks ago

    Based on time & distance, I personally think that it has. 

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  • oyubir
    Lv 6
    4 weeks ago

    Well, I guess you are referring to the drop in luminosity from Betelgeuse (that is the reason why, suddenly, since a few days, Betelgeuse is the one people are talking about, when they expect to see a supernova. Just 15 days ago, it was still Antares, or that star in Pegase that were quoted in those "will we see a supernova in our lifetimes" questions).

    Understand that there is no reason to think that this drop in luminosity announces an imminent explosion.

    It is just unusual, so people wonder if it is a sign (after all, it is not like we had seen hundred of supernova, and were sure about what are the red flags showing imminent explosion)

    It is a little bit as if you had an old WW2 bomb in your garden. If one day, the bomb start playing Macarena, you would probably stay away from it, thinking "I never heard that bombs play Macarena before going off, but just in case that is the warning sign, let's not stay around".

    So likewise, something unusual happened with Betelgeuse, and since people know that Betelgeuse is about to go off, they just wonder if...

    If that is the case, and that drop in luminosity is, indeed, a sign of an imminent explosion, then, yes: I don't know what "imminent" means, but it means far less than 600 years. So, in that case, if what we have just seen is an announcement of coming explosion, then, that means indeed, that the explosion already occurred, centuries ago. (and there would be no way to know before, since no information travel, anyway, faster than light. There is no way to know that what we see do not exist anymore)

    If not (and it is probably not), then Betelgeuse can go off any time from "600 years ago", to "100000 years from now".

    There is no way to know when, and therefore no way to know the answer to your question. But basic probability consideration says that the safe bet is to answer "no" to your question.

    tl;dr: no way to be sure. But safe bet is no answer "no". Unless that recent drop in its luminosity is a harbinger of a coming explosion (but that is unlikely), in which case, yes, it already occurrend.

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    • oyubir
      Lv 6
      2 weeks agoReport

      Well, I am not the one posting questions. But it is undeniable that Antares was the object of the "will we see a supernova" questions before 2020. And Betelgeuse is since that luminosity drop.

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  • 4 weeks ago

    It is certainly not the largest Red Giant we know but it is Massive Enough to go Supernova

     At a Distance of 642.5 Light Years away it is visable as it is there on the Shoulder of Orion

     Far enough away to do us no harm but close enough to give us the Mother of all Fireworks !

    Of course 642.5 years is the time scale we are looking at

    So it could have already went Kaboom already

    It is like a lot of things in the Cosmos, a Billion years is but a day

    Something like Six Billion Years from now the Andromeda Galaxy will be colliding with the Milky Way

     But just Imagine what the Sky would look like

    All good things come to those who wait

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    • Ronald 7
      Lv 7
      4 weeks agoReport

      And Counting

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  • Bill-M
    Lv 7
    4 weeks ago

    We will know in 642.5 years.

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  • 4 weeks ago

    I do not... although, that could be wrong.

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  • Elaine
    Lv 7
    4 weeks ago

    We don't know as we are seeing the star as it was 500 years ago. 

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  • Fuhr
    Lv 6
    4 weeks ago

    He's probably enjoying a Zagnut.

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  • 4 weeks ago

    The only possible answer is: 'We don't know.'

    Is it possible ? Yes. Is it also possible that it has not ? Yes.

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