# Chance of something occurring after a certain amount of tries?

I am trying to figure out the probability of success after multiple tries.

Example One:

Lets say the chance to hit a target is 41%. What is the chance to hit the target after 6 attempts?

Example two:

Chance to hit a target is 42%. What is the chance to hit the target after 8 attempts?

Relevance
• 41% and 42%....they are independent tries

• The probability of missing the target on the first 6 attempts is 0.59^6.  So the probability of hitting the target at least once on the first 6 tries is 1 - 0.59^6 = 0.958

For 8 tries it is 1 - 0.58^8 = 0.987

• Use the Binomial Probability Distribution Function.

1. Probability of hitting the target one or more times: 0.9578

2. Probability of hitting the target one or more times: 0.9872

• Soldier Jay2 weeks agoReport

Nevermind think I got it :)

• Previous tries have no effect on the odds of a current try.  If you've tossed a coin a hundred times and gotten 100 heads, the odds of throwing another are still 50-50.

But, the odds of throwing 101 heads in a row are extremely low.