If they fail to impeach Trump, is he guaranteed re-election? Explain your answer please?
- SocratesLv 74 weeks ago
Pretty much. Any number of Dems have expressed this fear. There is also the unwavering support for Trump.
- martinLv 74 weeks ago
Trump was odds-on the man to win 2020. The impeachment has thrown a little monkey wrench into that, but the chance of Senate conviction is very slim. So he's still the favored winner.
- Anonymous4 weeks ago
Well, first off, let's be clear that impeachment is basically an indictment. The House votes to impeach and then a trial is held in the Senate where a supermajority is needed to remove him. At this point Trump is virtually guaranteed of being impeached. The evidence is crystal clear that he tried to extort Ukraine for his political benefit and Democrats aren't going to let that slide. But at the same time, he is almost certain to not be removed (which is probably what you mean). Assuming all Democratic Senators vote to convict, we would still need something like twenty Republican Senators joining them to remove Trump from office. I think at most we'll get one or two Republicans voting to convict.
So Trump will survive impeachment. Will it guarantee his re-election? Absolutely not. I think it won't even help him. Think about it, how is it going to help him? Will his corruption being exposed actually convince anyone to vote for him who wasn't going to already? I highly doubt it. If anything it would convince some people, however small a number, to vote against him when they might not have before. The argument that people sometimes put forward to explain why impeachment will help Trump has to do with enthusiasm. In this scenario an impeachment effort will cause outraged Trump supporters to turn out in droves and power Trump to victory. The problem with this idea is that Trump supporters are a minority and his opponents are a majority. His opponents are going to be super energized too. They're already out for blood. A failed impeachment trial isn't likely to dampen that enthusiasm. If anything it would likely increase it. And when an energized majority goes up against an energized minority it's the majority which wins. We saw this in 2018. Republicans actually got more votes in 2018 than they got in 2010, which was a landslide victory year for them. But 2018 was a landslide defeat for Republicans because the Democrats, who made up a majority of the voters, were also super energized and turned out in even bigger numbers.
- How do you think about the answers? You can sign in to vote the answer.
- LoganLv 54 weeks ago
He will definitely be impeached by the house, but most likely not found guilty by the senate. The impeachment inquiry is having a positive effect on turning more undecides away from Trump. Most recent general election polls have Trump trailing his 5 leading democrat candidates by 17,15, 14, 11, and 9 percentage points.
- electricpoleLv 74 weeks ago
Nothing is a "guarantee" in either direction. Especially in these times. It's all uncharted waters. There is so much division and partisanship, anything is possible.
Whether he is actually impeached or not is a purely political decision. As are the charges. It will have nothing to do with the interest of justice. For either party. In this regard it is not all that different then the Bill Clinton version. Objectively speaking.
- EntropyLv 74 weeks ago
It's hard to believe they would fail to impeach Trump. I think you mean if they fail to remove him from office in the Senate. That is quite likely because they need 20 GOP Senators to vote against their party interests. That's a lot. I can see 5-10 tops. And even 10 is pretty optimistic.
But NO, if Trump is not removed it in no way guarantees his re-election. Indeed, one of the arguments against impeachment is because we ARE close to an election and should let the voters decide. Voters may well say 'impeachment is supposed to be rare, let us handle it!'
Should he survive, realize that right now, EVERY major Democratic candidate in the primaries is beating Trump in head to head polling. Impeachment recently achieved a plurality of support in swing states. As long as the Democrats nominate someone that doesn't terrify the swing state moderates, I think they have a great chance to win. If it's a strong candidate, it could even be a landslide.
- Impeach 45Lv 44 weeks ago
No. It'll actually turn out Democrats in higher numbers. Remember: High turnout almost always favors Democrats because ReTHUGlicans are in the minority. HRC won the popular vote. The people spoke and they did NOT want Trump.
- Anonymous4 weeks ago
Do you realize how pathetic the left is?
No one but dummies, felons,and greedy illegals will vote Democrat now.
- BlueNinjaLoveLv 74 weeks ago
Of course not. That's up to the voters.
Being impeached or not is not a dog whistle for the people who aren't into him to magically start flocking to him to protect poor little Trumpy.
If anything he is risking losing many of the moderates who weren't fond of neither him or Hillary and helped him win with not much better than coin flip and he may not be giving them much reason to stay...what with all the other options to look at in contrast of his behavior.