do you think Trump will surpass his 305 electoral votes this time around ? will he keep Michigan and win New Mexico?

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  • Anonymous
    4 weeks ago

    No.

    I'd ask Trump supporters who think he'll do better than 2016 to look at the map and show which ones he might win. I'd suggest the map at 270towin.com because it's interactive. The problem for people who think that Trump is going to win bigger is that there's not a lot of opportunities for him to pick up extra states. In the Northeast and West Coast he's not really going to pick up much. Your notion that he'll pick up New Mexico seems unlikely. 60% of New Mexicans voted against Trump in 2016 and the state is about half Latino, a demographic which voted about 75% against Trump in 2016 and has only come to like him less since he took office. Much more likely to flip is neighboring Arizona. Trump won Arizona by a relatively narrow margin in 2016 and Democrats did well in the Senate race in 2018 as well as in other elections in the Trump era. If we look around the country, there are only a few possible pickups for Trump. He could win New Hampshire, which is the most Republican leaning state in New England and which Clinton barely won last time. He could also theoretically win Maine, where he won one of the Congressional districts in 2016. Maine is the oldest state in the country and Trump does best among the elderly, but it's also been trending somewhat Democratic with polls showing that Republican Senator Susan Collins might be in trouble next year. Trump could also theoretically pick up Minnesota, which Clinton won by about 2% in 2016. Maybe the same thing could happen there that happened in neighboring Wisconsin. But Democrats swept the statewide races in 2018. Theoretically Nevada is another pickup opportunity. Agian, Clinton won it by a relatively narrow margin. But it's got a rising Hispanic population and hasn;t voted for a Republican since George W Bush.

    I think it's much more likely that Trump loses electoral votes, even if he does end up winning. Remember that Trump's margin of victory in the Rust Belt states that he flipped was almost nonexistent. In Michigan he beat Clinton by just 10,000 votes out of several million cast. In Wisconsin, he actually got fewer votes than Romney did in 2012. He won there not because he was popular but because Clinton was even less popular. Pennsylvania as well saw him win by way less than 1%. He could easily lose all three of those states and there's reason to suspect that he will. Last year we saw Democrats sweep all statewide races in those states and make significant gains in the House races in Pennsylvania (due to the removal of a Republican gerrymandered map). Florida is another potential Democratic pickup as well. Trump won the state by less than 1.5% in 2016 and the Hispanic population is growing. Last year, Democrats lost the statewide races but they did so by margins which were so slim that the races went to legally mandates recounts. Also potentially hurting Trump is a ballot measure which passed overwhelmingly in 2018 which gave non violent felons the right to vote after they complete their sentences. This could give hundreds of thousands of Floridians the vote, many of them black or Hispanic. We've also seen about 100,00 Puerto Ricans move to central Florida after the 2017 hurricane devastated that island and they largely hate Trump for how he bungled the hurricane response. There's other pickup opportunities as well. Ohio and Iowa went for Trump by relatively large margins in 2016, but there were states which went for Obama by that margin in 2012 and which Trump flipped. It's not crazy to think that Democrats could flip one or both of those states. Iowa, in particular saw Democrats win three out of four Congressional districts in 2018 and Ohio is a perennial bellwether. I already mentioned Arizona as a possible pickup but there's also North Carolina. Like Virginia, which used to be a soldily Republican state but is now a solidly Democratic one, North Carolina has been trending left for years as a rising population of African Americans and professionals has changed the makeup of the electorate. They elected a Democrat as Governor a few years ago and in 2018 the Democrats won the majority of the vote for House seats (they didn't get a majority of seats because of gerrymandering). North Carolina, which Trump narrowly won and which went for Obama in 2008, could go Democratic again. Another potential pick up is Georgia. It's even further behind the curve than North Carolina, but has also been trending Democratic. Last year, the Democratic candidate for Governor lost by just a few thousand votes. Republican Senatorial candidates, while still reliably winning, have been doing so by lowr and lower margins each race.

    So the problem for Trump in his quest to beef up his margin of victory, or even to stay in office, is that there's few opportunities for him to win any extra states and there's a lot of opportunities for Democrats to win states they lost in 2016. And these things aren't mutually exclusive. Trump could actually win some of the states I mentioned, such as New Hampshire, but end up losing electoral votes overall because Democrats win elsewhere. One of the problems for Republicans is that, except for Minnesota, all of the states that they could theoretically pick up are small. In contrast, many of the states Democrats could theoretically pick up are large states, like North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

  • 4 weeks ago

    Not a chance......his tariff wars have hurt businesses and all but killed farmers.

    and there's no Anti-Hillary vibe out there this time. In fact, there's a growing Anti-Trump vibe, so all those narrow margins he squeaked by in, winning the state........he can kiss those goodbye.

    Just his hard core base won't be enough to win this time.......he's not appealing at all, to anyone else except his hardcore base.

  • Jeff D
    Lv 7
    4 weeks ago

    I think it's possible. The most likely states for Trump to pick up are the ones he most narrowly lost in 2016: New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada.

    • Jeff D
      Lv 7
      4 weeks agoReport

      Earth to Weasel: Trump only lost New Hampshire by about 3000 votes in 2016. LOL.

  • 1 month ago

    Yes, I expect Trump will get more EC votes in 2020 than he got in 2016.

    Note CA and NY will again manufacture millions of fake ballots so the Democrats can again claim they won the popular vote.

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  • 1 month ago

    New Mexico hates Trump. Michigan is suffering thanks to Trump and won't vote for him again.

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