Are upward and downward phase transitions ultra rare?

What I’m speaking about is basically upward and downward phase transitions of vacuum decay, as in a false vacuum tunneling down to us or us tunneling down to a true vacuum. I heard that most simple models predict it as ultra rare but is that true? Also as a bit of a side question would the fact that the models are... show more What I’m speaking about is basically upward and downward phase transitions of vacuum decay, as in a false vacuum tunneling down to us or us tunneling down to a true vacuum. I heard that most simple models predict it as ultra rare but is that true? Also as a bit of a side question would the fact that the models are simple make the information bad, untrustworthy or not to be actually true?
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