Anonymous
Anonymous asked in Science & MathematicsAstronomy & Space · 6 months ago

# are there any asteroids predicted to impact earth any time soon?

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• 6 months ago

No major impacts are predicted for the next 22 to 30 years.

• 6 months ago

Nope,, not in my lifetime anyway.

Maybe a meteorite here and there, like always.

The earth gets pummeled daily by meteorites, asteroids under 1 meter, most hardly grains of sand up to football size. If they don't burn up before impact, most hit oceans or unpopulated places. Some very few have hit cars, houses, and people, not much damage or injury.

T

• 6 months ago

Asteroids are differentiated from comets and meteoroids. In the case of comets, the difference is one of composition: while asteroids are mainly composed of mineral and rock, comets are primarily composed of dust and ice. Furthermore, asteroids formed closer to the sun, preventing the development of cometary ice.

The difference between asteroids and meteoroids is mainly one of size: meteoroids have a diameter of one meter or less, whereas asteroids have a diameter of greater than one meter.

• Nyx
Lv 7
6 months ago

That happens constantly - by the ton every day.

You're most likely have breathed in some asteroid dust as you have read this.

• 6 months ago

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/

When I open the page, the default value lists those that have more than "one-in-a-million" probability of hitting.

The interesting column is the "Torino scale". It is a risk-value, based on the combination of the probability of a hit AND the consequences (potential damages) of that hit. For example, a small asteroid (less than 5 metres across) will still score "0" even with a 100% chance of a hit (because it will not do much damage).

As of now (16 July, 8 a.m.EDT), nothing scores anything higher than 0. The first entries (with no Torino value) are simply too recent - the value has not been calculated yet).

The highest value ever reached was 4 (for Apophis, shortly after its discovery - it was quickly dropped to 2, then 1, then 0 within a few months, as more observations allowed more accuracy). We only start to worry when the value is 4 or more.

The "Impact probability" is given in scientific notation. For example, Apophis shows 8.9e-6 which means

8.9 * 10^(-6) = 0.0000089 = 1 / 110,000

or 0.00089 % chance of hitting during the critical period of 2060 to 2105; during that period, its orbit brings it closer to Earth on 12 occasions.

By clicking on the name of the asteroid, you can get more information, including details of each close approach (expected distance, etc.)

• Robert
Lv 6
6 months ago

That's the fun part. They keep track of most of them but the ones that come from the direction of the sun are hard to detect....so....while no imminent threat is known, it's the unknown one that could get us.

• 6 months ago

Predictions can change. As orbits are refined, or even modified by close encounters, whatever we thought was safe for now and far future might get dangerous.

There are some unknowns, we are sure. But how many, where, and if they are coming to hit us are what make them unknown.

You have more of a chance of dying from an asteroid hit than from a commercial airline crash. And we know those happen. In 1978 a 737 hit exactly a block from my house. As far as airliners, there are thousands watching them all the time. But asteroid watchers are too few to staff a single McDonald's for one shift.

Watch out!

Source(s): Science shows, on line searches, magazines about Astronomy. Sixty-five years learning a little Astronomy and watching sky.
• 6 months ago

Real world is that there is 1 chance in a billion of a big, unknown, asteroid impacting Earth in the next 300 years. The accent is on the UNKNOWN part.

• ?
Lv 7
6 months ago

Asteroids are impacting earth all the time. Most of them dont make it through earths atmosphere. We're doing everything we can to track as many large near earth objects as possible, but because space is very dark, and most obkects arent very luminous, there could be an object hurtling towards us right now and we might not spot it until its nearly on top of us

• Morningfox
Lv 7
6 months agoReport

And invisible pink unicorns *might* save us. This "we might be doomed" talk doesn't do any good.