?
Lv 7
? asked in Politics & GovernmentPolitics · 2 years ago

Republicans lost 6 senate seats after their failed impeachment of Clinton for lawsuit testimony. Do you think Dems will pay a price at the?

...polls next year? Or gain seats?

Update:

Dems will gain more seats, like last year, because the American public can smell a rat sooner or later.

11 Answers

Relevance
  • Anonymous
    2 years ago
    Favorite Answer

    No. In fact, they'll probably gain seats, perhaps even retaking the Senate. The fundamental difference between 2020 and 1998 was that Clinton was generally popular and his popularity continued to grow as the impeachment scandal went on. Americans at the time saw it for what it was: a desperate attempt by Republicans who couldn't defeat Clinton at the ballot box to remove him via dubious legal charges. The reverse is true in 2019. Trump has remained catastrophically unpopular throughout his presidency, with his poll numbers fluctuating on about a ten point scale between the mid 30s and mid 40s. Uniquely in presidential history he has never had majority support in his first term. Americans generally support the Mueller report and saw the investigation as necessary. We can also contrast Clinton's relatively strong performance in the 1996 election, where he easily coasted to victory, and Trump's performance in the mid terms of 2018, which was the worst for Republicans since Watergate. Think about that: Trump is so odious and unpopular that his party suffered the biggest loss it's had since it was embroiled in the greatest in the history of the country.

    The 2020 race will be difficult for Republicans. To begin with, 2018 saw Democrats get about 10 million more votes for Senate than Republicans. The only reason Republicans gained seats was because of a map which happened to be incredibly tilted in their favor. Democrats were defending two thirds of the seats up for election and 10 of those seats were in states which Trump won. Despite this historically favorable map, Republicans were only able to get a net two seats because of Trump's unpopularity. The bad news is that they will be facing almost the reverse map in 2020. The class of 2014, when Republicans took back the Senate, will be up for reelection so they will be defending about two thirds of the seats this time. While only one of those seats is in a state which Clinton won in 2016, several of them are in states which were close in either that year or 2018. Republicans have few opportunites for pickups in 2020 since the few Democratic seats up for election are mostly in deep blue states like Massachusetts, Illinois, and New Jersey. Their only likely pickup is Doug Jones in Alabama. Other than that they might be able to pick up New Hampshire, but Jean Shaheen has gotten 51% in both of her previous elections, including in the GOP wave year of 2014, which suggests that she's got a pretty consistent level of support in the state. On the other side, Democrats have a number of possible pickups based on past peformances. For example, Senator Thom Tillis in North Carolina got less than half of the vote when he ran in 2014 (again, a Republican wave year). North Carolina has been trending Democratic and could be a win that year. Nearby in Georgia, Democrats came within two points of winning the Governorship last year. They could win a Senate race there next year, especially if Stacey Abrams decides to run. Maine Senator Susan Collins is expected to be in a tough fight for reelection as she has faced intense blow back from her constituents over her handling of the Brett Kavanaugh nomination. Along with Collins, Corey Gardner of Colorado is considered the most vulnerable Republican in 2020. He also got less than half the vote and is the rare Republican hanging on in a blue state. Next door in Arizona is another possible pickup. Martha McSally lost the Senate race in 2018, getting only 47% of the vote, but was appointed to fill the slot. She has to defend her seat next year against a Democrat, possible Mark Kelly a former military aviator like McSally and retired astronaut. Democrats also, possibly, could have a shot at Texas. Last year, Congressman Beto O'Rourke nearly unseated Ted Cruz. If that wasn't a fluke then Jon Cornyn could be in for a real fight next year, especially if Beto's presidential run fizzles and he decides to try for the Senate again

  • Anonymous
    2 years ago

    I guess the realization that the Bill Clinton sex scandal was part of the reason Hillary lost has not settled into your cranium yet!

    The gaining of six seats in the senate and even getting control over the house was moderate compared to the loss of seats in the same type election under Obama (Mid-term post election).

    The election is still a long way off, most of the voters will forget the news of today if the political parties let it rest. At this point keeping the issue in the news will do neither party any real good.

  • 2 years ago

    who even cares any more man

  • 2 years ago

    Follow the California news media facebook and instagram posts/comments.

    Places like LA Magazine & NBC SF... on the "Trump did this posts" there are always hundreds of comments. Until this week, about 98% are pro-Anti-Trump... starting this week they have been a significant increase of will you just forget about Donnie and do the job you were hired to do and some even pro-Donnie.

    My thought... is either:

    - the trump campaign decided to start using social media in a big way to drive their campaign.

    - or the tide has actually turned.

  • How do you think about the answers? You can sign in to vote the answer.
  • Jeff S
    Lv 7
    2 years ago

    Since Trump and his crony at the DOJ are misrepresenting Mueller's report I'd say not!

  • martin
    Lv 7
    2 years ago

    The Mueller episode is going to bring votes to the Democrats.

  • 2 years ago

    Trump's fan base is still very loyal, but they are maybe 30-35% of voters, at most. The people who really elected Trump were moderates and independents just hated Hillary more. 2016 showed us those people are getting sick of Trump's theatrics and narcissism and incompetence.

    Ronald Reagan was not impeached or any case brought against him in his first term. But people got tired of him too. He actually go re-elected in 1984 but lost a lot of seats in Congress. Likewise GW Bush in 2004. It could easily happen to Trump.

  • Anonymous
    2 years ago

    Clintons impeachment was successful. Clinton is only the second President to be impeached. Andrew Johnson was the first.

    Both were Democrats.

    TRUMP 2020

  • 2 years ago

    I think democrats will pay a price for insisting there is no problem at the border and for harboring all the socialist politicians

  • Anonymous
    2 years ago

    They will pay a BIG price. They lost over 60 seats during Nancy's first tenure as Speaker.

Still have questions? Get your answers by asking now.