Will electric cars take over by 2080?
- 5 years agoFavorite Answer
Predicting the future is like watching out for traffic. There are many moving objects to keep track of at the same time. Some are like big trucks and demand our attention but a jogger listening to their tunes can still knock us off our feet. A baby carriage or a beautiful scene can make us slow down.
The big trucks in transportation presently seem to be the petrochemical industry and climate change. They are bearing down on us and taking up all lanes. The petrochemical industry has been painting all sorts of pretty pictures in front of us: efficient vehicles, hybrid vehicles, CNG vehicles, hydrogen vehicles all of which look pretty but continue our dependence upon fossil fuels. The threat of man made climate change tells us that we can't use any fueled vehicle safely. Turning another corner is the threat of peak oil. While it says we are not going to run out of oil there will be a shortage and prices will rise.
At the very least it seems as if we are looking at a period of change. We are crossing an intersection and it is easy to become confused by all the traffic. Behind us there are 300 years of using fossil fuels to produce heat for industry, steam engines and then the internal combustion engine. Switching to electric power would be the type of change envisioned by Jules Vern over 100 years ago. There are many technologies that can be discovered in the next 66 years. Some will certainly reach the market and become an industry. Wars and natural events may also substantially disrupt events in this amount of time.
Standing at this point in time I would say yes, electric cars will become more than 50% of the market by 2080 but would add that the prediction probably has no more than a 25% chance of accuracy.
- KanoLv 75 years ago
Not without major advances in battery technology, which do not look to likely at this moment as scientists and industry have been working flat out for the last 30yrs trying to come up with better batteries, yes we had NiCad and then Lithium, but they are far to expensive with insufficient lifespans, in the long run they are only marginally better than lead/acid.
But who can tell, we are not very good at predictions, scifi writers have been trying for hundreds of years, but not one of them forsaw the rise of the silicon chip.
- 5 years ago
-How about 2020 ?! THAT's more Likely ! ;)
- alexLv 45 years ago