PInk asked in Science & MathematicsWeather · 6 years ago

What does it mean if there is a 60% chance of rain?

is that a good chance that it will rain it just changed from 83% to 60%

7 Answers

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  • 🌪
    Lv 6
    6 years ago
    Favorite Answer

    The percentage of a chance of rain is determined by the probability of precipitation. Probability of precipitation is the probability that precipitation will fall at any point, averaged over the forecast area.

    In your case, a 60% chance of rain means that there will be a 60% chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area. It also means that there is a 40% chance that it will not rain. A 60% chance of rain is considered a good chance of rain occurring. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop

    Source(s): Meteorologist/Storm spotter & chaser
  • Gary H
    Lv 7
    6 years ago

    Another way to think about this... On days in the past when the conditions have been "like" what the conditions are going to be "like" today, 6 days out of 10, it rained.

    As far as meteorologists guessing... Yes, there is guesswork because the atmosphere is a very complex thing. If you look at a very specific point on earth, say the front step of your house, the "EXACT" same weather conditions don't happen very often. Even if they do, they don't stay the "EXACTLY" same for very long and, even if they did, it does not mean the weather conditions somewhere near by, like your backyard, will be EXACTLY the same.

    On the flip side... meteorological measurements are much more detailed and much more abundant today than they were even 50 years ago. We have weather radar and weather satellites and weather stations and weather airplanes that did not exist 50 years ago. We have very advanced computers that analyze this historical data to mathematically calculate what typically happened under particular conditions and how "air masses" move depending on barometric pressure gradients and humidity and temperature distributions and solar energy input and human activities including agricultural and industrial activity and natural events like volcanic eruptions and changes in ocean currents.

    It was not that long ago when hurricanes were a surprise.

  • TQ
    Lv 7
    6 years ago

    A 60% chance of rain means every point in the forecast area has an 60% chance of observing measurable precipitation (at least 0.01") during the forecast period. It also means rain is expected over 60% of the forecast area.

    Contrary to popular opinion...it does NOT mean...

    ...it will rain 60% of the time during the forecast period.

    ...six out of ten times when conditions were the same...it rained.

    ...it's the probability that more than 1/100th of an inch of precipitation will fall in a single spot... averaged over the forecast area.

    50% is considered a 'good' chance b/c either outcome (rain; no rain) is equally likely.

    60% is considered a 'likely' chance b/c the odds are tilted in favor of one outcome over another.

    Any forecast for precipitation having at least an 80% chance of occurrence is simply stated as 'rain' without a probability.

    ---

    For the flat-earthers who dispute the idea POP infers areal coverage...

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0...

    Short read.

    Flip to page four for the final word.

    It's just a peer-reviewed paper published in a well-respected pointed-headed journal for egghead atmospheric scientists...so there's obviously nothing of value to see here.

    Source(s): NWS operational meteorologist
  • 6 years ago

    Haha 60 % chance a rain in Texas means rain lol . When We Folks here see 30 % we know it's gonna rain

    Source(s): 30% man
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  • It's a gimmick weathermen/women use. I would say they only know 40% of the time, what is actually happening. Anything above 50% means that they are guessing because they have no idea.

  • 6 years ago

    50% chance means there's a good chance it may or may not rain. You know, half and half. So if 60% is more than 50%, I'm pretty sure 60% means that it will most likely rain :)

  • 6 years ago

    Percentage of rain indicates the percent of the forecast 'area' that will receive rain. It does't necessarily pinpoint the exact area that will get wet.

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