Does 70% chance of rain mean it will rain?
I live in Houston. But before I checked it said 100% chance of rain then 70% chance of rain on Tuesday. Will it rain
Thanks. Now they changed to a 90%. By my guess it might rain heavy
- 🌪Lv 66 years agoFavorite Answer
The percentage of the chance of rain is determined by the probability of precipitation. Probability of precipitation is the probability that precipitation will fall at any point, averaged over the forecast area.
In your case, a 70% chance of rain means that there will be a 70% chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area. It also means that there is a 30% chance that it will not rain. Being that it is a 70% chance, there is a very good chance it will rain. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=popSource(s): Meteorologist/Storm spotter & chaser
- BJJLv 76 years ago
I think a 70% chance means it will be more than likely it will
- 6 years ago
No it means it is 70% likely to rain.
- TQLv 76 years ago
Short answer: a 70% chance of rain means the operations weather forecaster thinks rain is more likely than not.
A 70% chance of rain means every point in the forecast area has an 70% chance of observing measurable precipitation (at least 0.01") during the forecast period. It also means rain is expected over 70% of the forecast area.
Contrary to popular opinion...it does NOT mean...
...it will rain 70% of the time during the forecast period.
...seven out of ten times when conditions were the same...it rained.
...it's the probability that more than 1/100th of an inch of precipitation will fall in a single spot... averaged over the forecast area.
50% is considered a 'good' chance b/c either outcome (rain; no rain) is equally likely.
60% is considered a 'likely' chance b/c the odds are tilted in favor of one outcome over another.
Any forecast for precipitation having at least an 80% chance of occurrence is simply stated as 'rain' without a probability.
For the flat-earthers who dispute the idea POP infers areal coverage...
Flip to page four for the final word.
It's just a peer-reviewed paper published in a well-respected pointed-headed journal for egghead atmospheric scientists...so there's obviously nothing of value to see here.Source(s): National Weather Service operational weather forecaster
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- Anonymous6 years ago
Usually it's a lie. Even 90% chance is a lie. Nobody can predict the weather 100%.... so all meteorologists make money off lies.