Why doesn't Ukraine defend its military establishments in Crimea?
Basically what the title says^^
I know that it's probably because they don't want to give the bear a reason to advance into western Ukraine, though I think its quite clear to everyone except Obama that Putin intends to take it all eventually anyway.
Also can Ukraine possibly win a war situation?
I think an all out war would result in a more aggressive response from the EU/US and asymmetric tactics have proven to work against the vastly more capable US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. Couldn't Ukraine (at least as an insurgency) hold out until sanctions coerce Russia to pull out.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.
I see your point, on paper Ukraine would be destroyed, however the chronicles of history show that nearly all Russian military escapades in recent years have resulted in failure, eg. Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia. Additionally Putin appears to be driven solely on impulse and the desire to project "Russian strength" to the international community, which though making him unpredictable would also hinder his ability to discern the best strategy.
William Wallace: I *am* William Wallace! And I see a whole army of my countrymen, here in defiance of tyranny. You've come to fight as free men... and free men you are. What will you do with that freedom? Will you fight?
Veteran: Fight? Against that? No! We will run. And we will live.
William Wallace: Aye, fight and you may die. Run, and you'll live... at least a while. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance,
just thought it was relevant, i don't pretend to be an expert on the situation and I don't form my opinions on the perspective of the media. I don't which nation is in the wrong, I was just wondering why Ukraine is rolling over.
Mark, the Russian army lumbered through both wars relying on superior technology, tactically it was awkward and against a country like Ukraine, weak tactical planning would be very costly to Putin and the image he is attempting to project.
In the first Chechen war Russia lost more tanks then in the battle of Berlin, during the second war the primary objective to eliminate the insurgency failed to be achieved and the insurgency continues to this day. I would not define that as a victory.
- Anonymous7 years agoFavorite Answer
Ukraine doesn't defend because they don't want to lose all the rest as well.
They have realised that no one has their backs on this and they'd rather no try anything stupid on their own. They' ve been playing "macho" with Russia for too long, (gas pipelines embargo, NATO missile umbrella etc) and they did it with the backs of the West. Well they begin to realise that all the West ever wanted of them was to use them as a trump card against Russia, and don't make me laugh with the sanction jokes. Does anyone sincerely think that Putin hasn't considered those "ramifications" before starting this and now he's going to back down? The whole idea itself in fact might have been to "step up" and make a strong statement(to a point, beside the rest of the benefits), and now he's gonna back down? All that "passive" countermeasures have been weighed before this ever started. Do you think the EU wants to rock the boat with Russia? Where do you think it gets its gas from? Is anyone naive enough to believe that they are going to shut down all the factories in Germany indefinitely until Russia gives back Crimea to Ukraine?
Does anyone honestly think that they care? Hell some of those politicians don't even care for their own citizens. And they're going to take on Russia on behalf of Ukraine? They played hide and seek with Russia, the bluff's been called and they folded.
The West is too busy, it has opened up so many fronts left and right, overextended and stretched all resources. To take on Russia on top of it? Not gonna happen. Plus Russia is a nuclear power, no one wants to go there. Ukraine cannot hold on its own in conventional war, and even by some miracle the wishful thinking came true and they managed to start winning against Russia what then? Russia surrenders to Ukraine? The Russians would nuke them to kingdom come and be done with it, and if the NATO tried to intervene, it would be gigantic radioactive mushrooms all around the globe.
Putin has convinced me that he's the kind of guy that wouldn't hesitate using nukes if it came down to something really important. I guess that makes him successful in that respect because I wouldn't presume to call his "bluff". Crimea is very important to Russia. Commerce, pipelines their naval base, 60% Russian people over there and their only port of harbour really in the southern seas. It amounts to much. Also I don't think he's too happy with having NATO install their missile defence program in Ukraine. Putin wouldn't mind giving his "naughty" neighbours a "lesson" for kicking Russia in the b@lls one too many times while it was down since the fall of Soviet union. The Ukrainians should have known better than to piss off the "Bear". The Russians see them as their "backyard" and they won't have US missiles on its doorstep.. It reminds me of the Cuba crisis 50+ years ago save with the roles reversed. I don't think anyone is foolish enough to challenge Russia militarily on this, because I genuinely believe they won't back down.
Besides, modern wars are fought with banks, not tanks when it comes to the big countries.
And I don't think the US EU want to rock the boat too much, especially while they are still ahead on that game. They have bigger concerns, like China.
And, I shouldn't forget to mention that if the West was happy enough to tear up Yugoslavia to 4 nations and that sort of game of "self determination" is acceptable for Kosovo why isn't it good enough for Crimea?
The vast majority people in Crimea are Russian, they had a vote, won by a land slide, case closed.
They West opened up Aeolus windbags with those Kosovo type of stunts they pulled around the world and now it's come back to haunt them. And only now they are beginning to consider the ramifications of their actions. Scotland (potentially) parting with UK, and the same deals in France, Spain, Italy etc. The world is about to become a very interesting place in the following years.
The Crimean business is a done deal. The western leaders will do meetings, make lofty statements trying to make it look like they're in charge, throw some firecrackers like the sanctioning jokes, try to conjure up a smokescreen, and then rub each other's b@lls a bit, and part ways.
The best chance Ukraine has is suck it up for now and wait for a change of scenery. It's not a good time and place to place a bet against Russia.
Added: I noticed that some of you guys fight over what's right what's legit and what's not. I hate to break it to you but it is what the mighty decide. It's the guy with the bigger stick. It has been true since the dawn of mankind. The rest is just bullsh1t for public consumption. Winners make the rules and walk away. And if they are decent enough they make a law for their indignities. I don't like it any more than anyone else does but sadly it's true. Call it like it is, there's enough bullsh*t as it is. Don't be bullsh*ting people.Source(s): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oF2hTzAaXpE
- Bob BLv 77 years ago
The Russian military is far, far more powerful than the Ukranian military, and the chances that Ukraine could survive something like that intact are basically zero.
At the very least, they'd need US or European assistance, which is far from guaranteed, as those countries are very hesitant to get involved in an all-out war with Russia.
Even as an insurgency, huge amounts of damage could be done. And to be honest, if you're already thinking about how you might inconvenience your enemy after the inevitable military defeat that will precede it, that's probably a good sign that it's not a good idea to start any fights.
- InLv 57 years ago
Why DIDn't Ukraine defend its military establishments in Crimea (before the referendum)?
Because there were NO illegal Russian troops in Crimea and Ukrainian stations were NOT at any risk.
So, who would Ukraine have attacked? Ukrianian civilians? Legal Russian troops? It was a tough situation. Plus, Ukrainian civilians included former Ukrainian spec op police broken up by the Maidan opposition and those spec op agents would not have let the Maidan opposition forces in Crimea which would also have involved war against civilians.
So, everybody conducted their everyday life there was no reason or even a pretext to defend something.
Why doesn't Ukraine defend its military establishments in Crimea (now following the referendum)?
Because the Crimeans voted in favor of being a part of Russia. That is, now it's the territory of another (non-Ukrainian) state.
And Russia has not done (officially) anything to Ukraine to be a pretext for starting a war. Everything was done by Crimeans and the Crimean authorities. The referendum showed that about 80% want Crimea to be a part of Russia.
There are also some other factors behind this (poor army, poor logistics, etc.), but they just add to the main thing.
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- Mark FLv 77 years ago
The Russian military is more than 10 times as large, better trained, better equipped and Russia has nukes. Also, the Crimea is populated almost entirely by Russian speaking ethnic Russians with very few Ukrainians and is geographically isolated from the rest of Ukraine.
What possible purpose would be served by a shooting war that could kill millions of people?
Chechnya and Georgia were failures? You might want to rethink that.
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- MichaelaLv 77 years ago
Heck, we don;t even defend our OWN 'military establishment'. Obama is nuetering the military to DANGEROUSLY low levels. and HE doesn't even defend our OWN borders agaisnt the illegal alien invasion - so for him to speak out on Russia not respecting Ukarien's borders is hypocritical
- Anonymous7 years ago
Because their army isn't strong enough to counter Russia's superior military might.
- AlikaLv 47 years ago
It's kind of too late .Crimea is already Russian.
- Anonymous7 years ago
Because the Russians would kill them.