Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentPolitics · 7 years ago

Global warming advocates, how have the predictions your models made fared?

Here are the first few predictions in the article out of the eight it highlights. (Many many more can be discovered using Google.)

1. Within a few years "children just aren't going to know what snow is." Snowfall will be "a very rare and exciting event." Dr. David Viner, senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, interviewed by the UK Independent, March 20, 2000.

Ten years later, in December 2009, London was hit by the heaviest snowfall seen in 20 years. And just last week, a snowstorm forced Heathrow airport to shut down, stranding thousands of Christmas travelers.

2. "[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…[By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers." Michael Oppenheimer, published in "Dead Heat," St. Martin's Press, 1990.

Oppenheimer told that he was trying to illustrate one possible outcome of failing to curb emissions, not making a specific prediction. He added that the gist of his story had in fact come true, even if the events had not occurred in the U.S.

"On the whole I would stand by these predictions -- not predictions, sorry, scenarios -- as having at least in a general way actually come true," he said. "There's been extensive drought, devastating drought, in significant parts of the world. The fraction of the world that's in drought has increased over that period."

3. "Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000." Christian Science Monitor, June 8, 1972.

Ice coverage has fallen, though as of last month, the Arctic Ocean had 3.82 million square miles of ice cover -- an area larger than the continental United States -- according to The National Snow and Ice Data Center.

4. "Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010." Associated Press, May 15, 1989.

Status of prediction: According to NASA, global temperature has increased by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit since 1989. And U.S. temperature has increased even less over the same period.

5. "By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half." Life magazine, January 1970.

Life Magazine also noted that some people disagree, "but scientists have solid experimental and historical evidence to support each of the following predictions."

Air quality has actually improved since 1970. Studies find that sunlight reaching the Earth fell by somewhere between 3 and 5 percent over the period in question.

6. "If present trends continue, the world will be ... eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age." Kenneth E.F. Watt, in "Earth Day," 1970.

According to NASA, global temperature has increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1970.

How could scientists have made such off-base claims? Dr. Paul Ehrlich, author of "The Population Bomb" and president of Stanford University's Center for Conservation Biology, told that ideas about climate science changed a great deal in the the '70s and '80s.

"Present trends didn't continue," Ehrlich said of Watt's prediction. "There was considerable debate in the climatological community in the '60s about whether there would be cooling or warming … Discoveries in the '70s and '80s showed that the warming was going to be the overwhelming force."

Ehrlich told that the consequences of future warming could be dire.

Several sites tell us that the global warming models predictions are wrong 97% of the time

10 Answers

  • 7 years ago
    Favorite Answer

    I call them "Believers"

    Hundreds of predictions have all been proved worng, global weather models are all wrong, hacked emails have proved bias, false data and lies, but none of that matters to the believers.

    Antarctic Sea Ice Hit 35-year Record High

    No Global Warming in 15 Years

    Another False IPCC Claim: "Greenland Ice Sheet is Melting"

    Climate-Gate Scandal Hid Data

    Himalayan Hoax

    UN climate chief admits mistake

    Global Not Warming

    No global warming since 1995

    Top UN climate official resigning

  • 7 years ago

    eye roll

    a little common sense:

    1. the world population is near 7 BILLION-before the last 150 years or so, it has remained around 1 million, give or take

    2. different environmentally concerned groups (all with scientific backing) are screaming ALL THE TIME about different resources & species either in the process of disappearing or already extinct-many due to loss of habitat. I can't think of ANY group involved with natural resources that is not trying to inform whoever will listen that the resources are dwindling...and the enormous population surge? How can you not believe that what they are warning is not at least partially true, even if some exaggerated claim they made is off target?

    You know as well as I do that these stories are often biased by leaving out important info and/or using polling methods that are biased. I spend time with older people and not a single one of them has EVER said 'gee, this place looks exactly like it did 50 years ago'. They ALL say 'OMG. I can hardly recognize this place-it used to be all fields'...

    My grandmother always talks about an NDE she had when she was 1st married and one day, after she brought it up for the umteenth time, my mind started wondering and I though, what if she had actually died. How many of us would there be? And just from her descendants the count is now up to about 19...and of those, 6, maybe 7, could very likely have a kid w/in the next few years, some of them might possibly have multiples. And that's just from ONE person in less than 50 years.

    You can't seriously think that large an energy using population doesn't effect the environment, a well as every other resource negatively...

    I thought only Xians were full of this much denial-so much that they ignore the specific scientific sections that pertain to their 'question' and anything that shows that they don't have all the answers.

  • 7 years ago

    Not an advocate but more variation is part of the theory of climate change so anybody predicting the weather is out of their league. Now the models don't predict gross things well and no experiments mean not really a science. Simple!!

  • 7 years ago

    I don't think anybody "advocates" global warming. That would be like advocating hurricanes and earthquakes. But if you really want to know about the topic, ask in a science section. Here, people are too selective in citing data. It becomes just a shouting match between "libs" and "cons."

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  • 7 years ago

    I live in an area of Florida that Al Gore said would be under water by now. So him being wrong has fared well for me.

  • 1970s? that's not even working with the same theories we've been using for the past 20 years?

  • Sarah
    Lv 7
    7 years ago

    I can't find a source for your alleged quote. This entire post is taken from an unsourced right wing blog.

  • 7 years ago

    No one is advocating for global warming.

  • Anonymous
    7 years ago

    what is a "global warming advocate"?

  • Yea,,, snow is so rare,,,,,

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