Although UKIP got nearly a quarter of all votes cast in the Local elections and are predicted to get around 23% of the vote in 2015, they way the votes are spread, and our first past the post system means that in all probability they will get between 5 and 8 seats, so long as everyone votes the way they did in the County Council elections.
Those that have moved to UKIP, or made them their first choice, are likely to remain faithful to them.
You should not be afraid to back a party, simply because you don't think they can win. If everyone did this, then we would only ever get Labour or Conservative, and I think the evidence of the past 34 years or so should be sufficient to enable everyone to see that neither of these two organisations are in touch with the people of the UK.
I cannot even consider the Liberal democrats as a major party any more, they back tracked on all the policies that people voted for, and pretty much prostituted themselves to anyone who would have them so long as they got a taste of Government. Be certain, they will do exactly the same if the opportunity arises after the next general election. I would bet a pound to a pinch of sh*t that they would form a coalition with the Labour party, if it meant they could hang on to some sort of power.
With only 14% of the vote in the County elections, one would imagine that they would do worse than UKIP, but they have areas of strength that will almost certainly re elect liberals, lets face it, the people of Eastleigh re elected a Liberal and Chris (She was driving, guv honest, honest honest (10 years later) oh yeah it was me)), Huhne was their MP.
Although UKIP did come a very strong second.
I stood for UKIP in the local elections, and although I knocked the Tory out of his seat, Labour got in.
There lies the danger. UKIP supporters such as myself, will vote UKIP at the general election. If the Tory did not win in his local area in the last election, he will still have take a fairly significant vote. UKIP will take seats from the Tory's and where there was only a marginal difference in votes, the Tories need to vote for UKIP or they will most likely see a Labour win.
Working class and in some cases other class Tory's are much more aligned to the UKIP view than they are comfortable discussing, but they know that they are absolutely against Labour, so they have the choice.
Vote Tory get Labour
Vote UKIP get UKIP
Like I said, UKIP supporters are not going to change the way they vote, they are in the ascendancy and it is the Tory's that need to "take one for the team" to ensure that Milliband and his euro loving, policy bereft and fiscally incompetent crowd do not get in.