Alann
Lv 5
Alann asked in Politics & GovernmentMilitary · 8 years ago

What happens to Pakistan in next 5 years?

Will it turn into another Somalia? Will it decide to attack India again, to lose again? Will it become China's slave after US stops giving free goodies? Will it become an all-terrorist nation with Taliban contesting elections?

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  • 8 years ago
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    Pakistan has two major tribes, neither of which is a majority. the third large tribe, the Pashtun, has successfully played off the other two for the past four decades. This is why neither major tribe, when it controls the government, takes serious steps to rein in the Taliban [which is mostly a Pashtun tribal thing].

    Pakistani military thinking revolves around the geography of Pakistan -- in essence, it is one long river valley with the Indian Army along the entire length but up in the hills. Pakistan has no 'strategic depth' ... they've lost every war with India but have no where to retreat to if/when losing the next one. this is another why for tolerating or even sponsoring the Taliban -- to retain effective control of Afghanistan and thus have somewhere to retreat to.

    Even if India had not re-invented the atomic bomb, Pakistan would have wanted to -- they can't retreat and can't win.

    ***

    five years out.

    Pakistan is in real danger of losing US patronage. They'd have to have a supporter to replace the US if that happened and the mission would become critical if the US swung to supporting India. without the India/Us hookup, Iran is a possible supporter for Pakistan but with the hookup, China would be the only possible ally of sufficient size to deter the threat of India.

    Thus, I estimate that Pakistan will be making nice toward China as a backstop/bolthole should their relationship with the US deteriorate [which I think it will].

    It is time for the other major Pakistani party to win the general elections -- so the Taliban will tilt toward them in exchange for continued clandestine support in dominating Afghanistan. Rather naturally, this'll upset the US and may trigger a very frosty relationship.

    ***

    Sadly, it seems to me that Pakistan is not on the road to rapid economic development. I suspect the problem is the government and patronage/corruption. After party a wins the elections, their partisans expect to enjoy the contracts and privileges that party b's partisans previously had. this limits the willingness of entrepreneurs to invest.

    The further Pakistani economic problem is that some half the population has poor access to ocean borne trade. Ocean shipping costs some 1/10th that of railroads and 1/30th that of trucks. This argues for a huge railroad building/upgrading program in Pakistan, running parallel to the river system and connecting to the major seaport. However, corrupt party politics tend to drop huge sums into a black hole from every government project and a rails project would be no different.

    [Pakistan needs the Aka Khan again. his enormous prestige actually got most of the people to cooperate instead of trying to seize power from the others.]

    Source(s): grampa
  • 8 years ago

    Interesting question! Next 5 years depends largely on the behavior of the local public in upcoming general elections in Pakistan (to be held during May, 2013). Rule of law has seen some (a little though) improvement in Pakistan recently and now the Pak judiciary also seem free from political pressure. If Pakistani people lose electing a responsible leadership in upcoming elections, the future of the country would further be compromised and the situation will be difficult to control.

  • 5 years ago

    I see the united states and fine Britain making tremendous strides in verbal exchange with Pakistan, so much of it into their language. I see Pakistan having struggles however eventually moving into a near democracy in the next 5 years. The USA is setting up stun technology and many weapons which have been used within the battlefield prior to now will end up out of date as will killing your enemy. Struggle in torn international locations will come to be more suitable in as so much as manipulate as an alternative than killing an enemy will become more major. This may take location in Hillary's administration, one whom I used to be leary of in terms of battle, however one i'll most of the time vote for because of this more moderen tech development.

  • 8 years ago

    Who knows? Pakistan should never have got involved in the fail that is the "war on terror." Pakistan has to many powerful allies and two many powerful enemies which have problems with each other. This mixed with the internal problems (terrorism) has created a concoction of chaos.

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  • 8 years ago

    It will become the next Afghanistan, we destroyed the taliban in Afghanistan and they all fleed to Pakistan and have formed Pakistani taliban which are protected by the Gov. (Osama)

    Source(s): AP World History
  • 8 years ago

    More to the point who actually gives a crap what happens there......so long as they are blowing themselves up I honestly do not give a crap.

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