Obama has a 10 point lead in Ohio?

Question

Of course they also polled considerably more Dems than Reps.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57520341/poll-...

Last page.

26% Republican

35% Democrat

35% Independent

3% Other

1% N/A

The same patterns were shown in polling in PA and FL.

Answer 1

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Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Key 2012 Races: Senate, OH6, OH7, OH10, OH16 | President: 2008: Obama +4.6, 2004: Bush +2.1

Polling Data

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Obama (D)

Romney (R)

Spread

RCP Average

9/12 - 9/24

--

--

49.3

44.1

Obama +5.2

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac

9/18 - 9/24

1162 LV

3.0

53

43

Obama +10

Gravis Marketing

9/21 - 9/22

594 LV

4.3

45

44

Obama +1

Washington Post

9/19 - 9/23

759 LV

4.5

52

44

Obama +8

Purple Strategies

9/15 - 9/19

600 LV

4.0

48

44

Obama +4

FOX News

9/16 - 9/18

1009 LV

3.0

49

42

Obama +7

Ohio Newspapers/Univ of Cin.

9/13 - 9/18

861 LV

3.3

51

46

Obama +5

Rasmussen Reports

9/12 - 9/12

500 LV

4.5

47

46

Obama +1

wahhhhhh!!

Source(s): TW

Answer 2

That's because more people in Ohio self identify as Dem. For simplicity sake, lets say that every Dem will vote for Obama and every Rep will vote for Romney. And lets say that 25% of the population of Ohio self identifies as Rep and 35% identifies as Dem, a 10% spread. If you arbitrarily decide that you will make certain that your sample has 30% Dem and 30% Rep, to even them out, then what are you doing? You are under reporting Dems and over reporting Reps. In short, you are skewing the results in a way that doesn't accurately reflect the population. In scientific polling, everyone in the targeted group, in this case Ohio voters, has the same chance of being called as anyone else. That's the only way you can get a truly random sample that will accurately reflect the makeup of the population. And incidentally, the 9 point gap between Republicans and Democrats in this poll is actually less than the 18 point gap identified by Gallup in 2008. That suggests that the CBS poll might actually be understating Obama's support in Ohio.

Answer 3

The problem for Romney is the Republican governor remains unpopular and cannot be any real help in getting the vote into his corner....and if the internal polling - what the regular folks don't see - continues to trend downward, the campaign will have tough choices in where to pull resources for closer races in a shrinking map and shrinking chances to win the election.

Answer 4

Ohio was never really that smart to begin with.

hmm? Let's look;

Top 100 Most Dangerous Cities in the U.S.

85 Youngstown, OH

75 Dayton, OH

47 Cincinnati, OH

34 Cleveland, OH

http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/neighborhoods/cri...

Ohio

Black persons, percent, 2011 (a) 12.4%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/presiden...

Personal income tax

Ohio collects income taxes from its residents at the following rates:

-- 0.618 percent on the first $5,000 of taxable income

Sales tax

The state sales tax rate is 5.5 percent.

The state's Property Tax Administration Fund was created to cover the costs the Department of Taxation incurs in administering local property tax programs. The fund is used to pay the operating costs of the divisions involved in overseeing real property taxation, administering the personal property taxes of public utilities and inter-county corporations and expanding audit capacity for personal property taxes.

(wow!! just wow.......on that one)

Ohio does impose a graduated tax on the transfer of assets of an estate.

Ohio previously levied an additional or pick-up tax, which was the difference between the federal credit for state death taxes and the amount of the basic Ohio estate tax paid.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/itax/edit/state/profil...

Ohio is just another Tax and Spend Democratic wasteland, no surprise there that Obama would have a 10 point lead.

Answer 5

To overcompensate for the 2004 election when Diebold rigged the voting machines in favor of Bush.

Answer 6

Quinnipiac does not weight based on GOP/DEM in 2008.

I bet you did not know that.

And yet, Ohio has Obama up by 8+ points.

I'm glad to continue educating many of you folks.

Source(s): I Read More Than Post.

Answer 7

and what's the breakdown of reps/dems/independents in those states?

This is from 2008, I couldn't find more recent numbers: Ohio now has more than 2.4 million registered Democrats compared with almost 1.5 million Republicans. (A slight majority of voters -- 4 million -- are not affiliated with either party.)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2066132/p...

not that far off from your numbers, relatively

EDIT: would it be more fair if they polled the same number of GOP when the state has more democrats? do you think that would be a fair number?

Answer 8

Today anyways, why do people watch the polls? Really, how many times have there been a total surprise ending?

Answer 9

If you oversample Democrats enough, Obama has a lead everywhere.

Answer 10

They did the same thing when they predicted the 2010 assbeating .