short version? The lag is a minimum of partly as a results of fact what we are generally measuring (the air) isn't the only component being heated up. We degree the air temperature, however the solar is likewise heating up the floor and the water. the floor and water will start to chill out off slightly, as quickly as the time passes midday/365 days passes the solstice, yet via cooling off, they're going to warmth up the air. And the solar would not grant a important deal much less warmth until quite later in the day/365 days, so the heating from the floor and water will upload to the heating from the solar, so the warmest element for the air is while the heating from the solar plus the heating from the floor and water is maximum suitable, which will frequently be after the element while the heating from the solar is, via itself, maximum suitable. For AGW, we are additionally measuring the floor and water, a minimum of to 3 degree. The air's getting hotter, the oceans are transforming into hotter, and the floor is getting hotter. which potential that is not merely thermal lag, if it replaced into thermal lag the oceans and floor could be getting cooler as a results of fact the air warmed. additionally, there is the certainty that, in case you upload extra warmth to something than that is cooling off via, that is going to save getting hotter, whether you're no longer including as lots warmth as you have been in the past. a important analogy for this could be a pot on a range. in case you have a pot on the range, and you turn the range to severe until the water is incredibly much boiling, then turn it to low, the temperature will proceed to bypass up, and the pot will boil. in case you time it superb, you additionally can get it to boil after taking it off the warmth completely, as a results of fact the warmth already in the pot itself will end the job. yet while that have been the end result happening with worldwide warming, and it replaced into brought about via the solar, the transformations could path image voltaic cycles in a predictable way. To my wisdom, they do no longer seem to be.