A completely unbiased and honest estimate from me is about 65%
He has strong support in Ohio, Texas, Tennessee, California & Nevada; all important states in the GOP primary/caucus process.
Santorum - No money and no organization. He's the next to go.
Gingrich - It's only a matter of time until his past, the other Candidates and apparently Nancy Pelosi deliver the knock-out punch. He's the second to go.
So it WILL boil down to a race between Romney and Paul.
Even if the other two Candidates stay in the race, there is 564 total delegates to be split between Romney and Paul because the others are not on the ballot. Virginia is one of these states.
He doesn't QUITE have the nomination sealed up; there is still a lot of gullible, misinformed voters out there that think Romney is the greatest politician ever to grace the GOP stage.
If he is nominated, though, you can bet with security that he will be the 45th President.
40% of the country is Independent. A recent poll out shows Paul does better with those Indies than any other Presidential Candidate, including Obama. He does better with non-whites than any other Candidate, including Obama. He has a huge Liberal AND Conservative fan base; just look at Blue Republican.
And look at all these Republicans & Neocons saying that they don't like Paul on his foreign policy and he's not going to get the nomination and he's crazy. Do you really think these Rightists are going to vote Obama if Ron gets the nomination? No.
Despite my name, I only answer questions as factual and unbiased as humanly possible. If I didn't think Ron Paul stood a chance, I would tell you so. Thumbs down all you want, the numbers will stay the same.