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Lv 6
? asked in SportsBaseball · 8 years ago

So...could anyone explain the logic behind trading Felix Hernandez?

It's something baseball "analysts" (I use the term loosely, I'll explain later) have been banging there heads against the wall about for the past 2 years, by basically saying "Trade Felix to Yankees for a box of rocks and smile about it". Now, over the past 2 weeks Ken Rosenthal and Jim Bowden have been proponents for trading Felix. Rosenthal is a good reporter, but a terrible analyst. He's basically put out literally the exact same article 2 years in a row (when Felix has had 4 and 3 years, respectively, remaining on his contract). Jim Bowden is the man who came up with OPSBI's. This is Jim Bowden.

http://www.nationalsdailynews.com/media/editorial-...

Obviously, in general one could throw out both of their opinions because they're morons.

My question is, is there any logical reason for the Mariners to trade Felix at this time? Sure, the Angels and the Rangers have improved hugely. But just because they got great players, doesn't make it logical to go throw away your best player. Even the prospects that they're advocating the Mariners get in return, make zero sense for the M's. Felix is 26. He's signed for 3 more years. The Mariners are not cash strapped, they're not hopeless (they've got a farm system ranked pretty much universally in the top 15, sometimes in the top 10) and they've already got a decent core. Building around Felix and trying to win in the next 3 years makes far more sense than trading him for mediocre prospects. Plus, with a second wild card being added...anything can happen. Even last year the Diamondback's went from first to worst, so it's not unprecedented. So...why not try to see if some of the young players (Ackley, Pineda, Smoak, Carp, Wells, Franklin, Walker, Catricala, Paxton and Hultzen) can contribute enough to win? If, a year and a half from now they're hopeless and all their players bust, fine, trade Felix then. But it makes zero sense now, even if it's more difficult to contend, it's not impossible. Besides, why trade to the Yankees? If they were going no where and needed to trade Felix, it's not like there are zero other teams, a team like the Blue Jays have far more interesting prospects and could be contending very soon...

Regardless, despite all the inane babbling from people like Rosenthal and Bowden, the Mariners aren't going to trade Felix this year and he loves Seattle, but I'm just interested if there's really any reason at all to trade Felix now, especially for such a mediocre return like Montero, Gardner and Nova.

Update:

@Juan

That's the whole point of this. There's zero reason to think that it's impossible for the Mariners to contend over the next 3 years. There's so much that could happen in that span of time (again, especially with the addition of a second wild card) that holding on to Felix for at least a year and a half makes far more sense than trading him right now, especially when he's already mentioned signing ANOTHER extension with the Mariners.

Update 2:

@The Kid

Carps 25. That's not "old". Besides Casper Wells is 27 so...(though you mentioned him as a 4 OF, which I completely disagree with, as his ceiling is higher than that). The rest of the young guys, I wasn't advocating bringing them up now. But within the next few years, they'll be up. Or, they could be traded for talent that's already at the Major league level. Trading Felix now is basically punting the next few seasons, it's basically saying their rebuilding plan failed and Jack Z would be fired. Even so, just because Texas and Anaheim are good now on paper, doesn't mean they'll do anything, the Red Sox just last year proved that. I don't see the point in trading him now instead of holding on to him and hoping to win with him.

Update 3:

@D

You're a moron with zero idea of what you're talking about.

Update 4:

...that's actually really rude of me, so I apologize, but still. Saying they have no hope pretty much means you have zero idea about the teams farm system. What you said would have been valid in 2008, it doesn't hold up now however. Besides, every team, even the Astros (who are worse off than the Cubs ATM).

4 Answers

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  • 8 years ago
    Favorite Answer

    The logic is this: The Mariners currently suck. The West is now a very difficult division with Texas AND the Angels. So why pay him a bunch to be good on a bad team when you could get a whole bunch of talent back that will likely be good when you are actually ready to compete? I agree, you don't trade for mediocre prospects. You trade him for REALLY GOOD ONES. Given what the Padres got for Latos, Feliz would command a HUGE return.

    They would never do Felix for Nova, Gardner, Montero. He would bring MUCH more than that. MUCH more.

    You don't rush prospects to try and win now. Rushing prospects does nothng but ruin them.

    Mike Carp is old.

    Ackley and Pineda are already good, and still young, foundation guys.

    Smoak is iffy (b/c he was kind of rushed, but can still pan out)

    Casper Wells is a 4th OF

    Nick Franklin is NOT ready to play every day at SS in the big leagues, he doesn't even have 100 PA above A ball.

    Tijuan Walker has picthed less than 100 innings in A ball. He's 2 years away at best.

    Hultzen has pitched ZERO professional innings (but admittedly looks like he will be good)

    Catricala has a half season at AA (admittedly a decent half season)

    PAxton has only 39 IP above A ball and less than 100 professional IP - 2 years away.

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  • 8 years ago

    The only reason that the Mariners would trade Felix now rather than later is that the free agent pitching market was quite thin this year. You saw what the Reds had to fork over to get Mat Latos, a clearly inferior pitcher to Felix. If there's another team out there as desperate as the Reds were then I could see that happening, but I don't think the Yankees would be that team anyway. Rosenthal, and most of these so called analysts, are a joke. The only way I would trade Felix (if I was the Seattle GM) would be if I got

    A top notch pitching prospect

    A Major League ready starter with some upside (like the Padres got in Volquez)

    A corner outfield prospect who has power

    A top notch, young reliever who could be used to close games

    If I were offered something similar to that I would probably trade him, but I doubt that'll happen.

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  • D
    Lv 7
    8 years ago

    Trading Felix makes sense because the Mariners are terrible. There is zero hope for their future on the horizon, and in all of baseball, no team is in as big a mess as them except possibly the Cubs (who, most experts agree are a 3-4 year work in progress). Yes, they could hang on to Felix and rebuild, but by the time their prospects were ready for big-time, Felix would be due 20 million a year, and they just can't pay that. If you trade off Felix now, you get a big-haul, including 2-3 MLB-ready prospects.

    Matt Latos is barely a number one pitcher, and he brought in a crop of players that would be unheard of a few years ago. Felix could command 2-3 'top ten' prospects plus a handful of maybes. The Mariners could get enough talent from Felix alone, that they could field a contender within the next couple years... if they don't trade him, they risk a repeat of Randy Johnson. You know who the Mariners got for him, right? Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama. They could have gotten so much more, if they weren't so stubborn and hung onto him too long. The difference between Johnson and Felix is that Johnson was actually on good Mariners teams... Felix doesnt' even have that going for him.

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  • 8 years ago

    The mariners would get an identical, if not better, package for Felix like the rangers did with texeira. Didnt seem logical trading tex back then cause he was our best player, but it all worked out. Plus seattle isnt contending anytime soon, so why not let Felix go somewhere to win?

    Source(s): Ranger fan
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