# Do the odds of finding something lower every day?

Relevance

If the sought item will certainly be found at some point, i.e. there definitely is a needle in that particular haystack, and all you have to do is go through the entire haystack, then the odds improve every day (you've eliminated more of the haystack, thus there is less haystack for it to be lost in--instead of one needle to two million pieces of straw, you now have one needle in 1 million pieces of straw). If it is something that may or may not ever be found, then it's irrelevant; there's no way to calculate the odds (unless you want to go with 50:50--either you'll find it or you won't).

The chances increase with time, unless the item has converted into something else and no longer exists. For instance, the oil spilled in the Gulf of Mexico has miraculously disappeared. One day, we may learn that it has been found on the sea floor. Or, perhaps the bacterial microbes have eaten it and now it is fish food and will never be found.

One other point: your highest chance for finding something is when you are first looking for it. At that point, you will look in the most likely places. After that, everywhere you look is a long shot, but with each "long shot" you have a chance of actually finding it.

It depends on what it is, where it is and what is happening around it. Is the grass getting taller or the sand drifting higher or is it sinking into the mud or the road being paved over it? Maybe it is deteriorating or corroding, or rusting or rotting or being eaten by insects, or maybe it is melting or the rain is washing it away. Facts and Circumstances.

Technically, I suppose they do!

But in actuality, I reckon we're still searching for the needle in the haystack, which is just as hard (or maybe harder, given the messed-about heap) as it was yesterday :O)

Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?