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What do the following record reports say about using local weather to dis/prove global warming?
We hear a lot on here about record low temperatures one place, or record high temperatures another, and depending on whether people believe in AGW or not they attempt to use local weather as proof one way or another. The following are reports of record high minimum and low minimum records set on the same day. What I find interesting is that both records were set in the SAME National Weather Service forecast area.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
618 PM PDT MON AUG 16 2010
...HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN OR TIED ON AUGUST 16...
LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD
IDYLLWILD 61 TIED 61 IN 1994 SINCE 1943
...LOWEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN OR TIED ON AUGUST 16...
LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD
EL CAJON 58 59 IN 1982 SINCE 1979
This is only the record for August 16, so 58 is pretty cool.
- 1 decade agoFavorite Answer
The chief prediction of global warming is that the weather becomes more violent. Also climate shifts take place.
The planet is now at an average ~1C hotter. But Russia in the last week of July this year had temperatures differences 25F degrees hotter some places (Moscow notably but a lot of Russia) AND temperature differences colder than average. See the spectacular NASA image:
The Russian 55 day heat wave is highly improbable, according to calculations by a scientist from Weather Underground: "Carver believes that manmade global warming has fundamentally altered weather patterns to produce the killer Russian heat wave. “Without contributions from anthropogenic climate change,” Carver said in an email interview with the Wonk Room, “I don’t think this event would have reached such extremes or even happened at all”:"
The frequency of intense rainfall is a key prediction of global warming. I noticed I was getting caught in awful and prolonged rainstorms a few years ago. They are now becoming widespread and increasing in severity (up to 20" in Pakistan and Kentucky!)
The key indicator for global warming is the increasing instability of the weather. Maybe hotter, but maybe colder, more wind-related damage, higher storm surges, and a lot more rain. One Centigrade degree on any day wouldn't bother me. It's the stuff that goes with it.Source(s): http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=... http://patrickhenrypress.info/node/258240
- 1 decade ago
Interesting. I am surprised that records were broken. Idyllwild is kind of cold right next to Mount San Juacinto and obviously El Cajon is on the warm side just offshore from San Diego. I am very familiar with both places. Both are minimum temperatures so it does show what a nice summer we are having here in So Cal compared to everywhere else except today is kinda hot.Source(s): Interesting. I am surprised that records were broken. Idyllwild is kind of cold right next to Mount San Juacinto and obviously El Cajon is on the warm side just offshore from San Diego. I am very familiar with both places. Both are minimum temperatures so it does show what a nice summer we are having here in So Cal compared to everywhere else except today is kinda hot.
- ?Lv 45 years ago
for sure, you suspect in worldwide warming. best for you. Now all you should do is coach that it exists. And please do not use an identical information that each physique those scientists doctored with the intention to make their projections look precise. undergo in concepts, i did not say there is or isn't worldwide warming. I basically state the reality that no evidence exists that that's being led to via guy. i'd be better than keen to take heed to any evidence which you will take place to very own that could bring about that end. Or are you merely so damned apprehensive regarding the plight of the polar bears which you have already given up utilising your motor vehicle, utilising air commute or mass transit, and function close off your electricity and gas with the intention to "do your area" to "keep the planet?" undergo in concepts burning wood for warmth is likewise a no-no, and coal and gasoline oil are merely as undesirable. LOL those days you won't be in a position of even easy your very own self-produced organic gas without contributing to the "eco-friendly" domicile result. LOL
- ?Lv 71 decade ago
Interesting. I am surprised that records were broken. Idyllwild is kind of cold right next to Mount San Juacinto and obviously El Cajon is on the warm side just offshore from San Diego. I am very familiar with both places. Both are minimum temperatures so it does show what a nice summer we are having here in So Cal compared to everywhere else except today is kinda hot.
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- Ottawa MikeLv 61 decade ago
Perhaps the SINCE year difference is a factor. From 1943-1979 there were some pretty cold years compared to 1979-2010.
I didn't Google these places but a record low minimum of 58 is pretty striking to me. When do those people ever get a cool break?
- BaccheusLv 71 decade ago
Individual records mean nothing regarding global climate change. There will continue to be unusual weather in everyplace on earth. Even more extreme events such as the heat wave in Russia and the floods in Pakistan do not prove climate change. But an increase in frequency of such extreme events is projected as the global climate changes, an increase had been measured between 1950 and 2006 and this summer seems to having more extreme events.
Other than in the arctic, it is very difficult to attribute apparent changes to something as slow but persistent as global warming. And the ongoing increase of .2 degrees per decade will not prohibit new record lows in Southern California, or anywhere, in future years.Source(s): JimZ failed to notice that one was a highest minimum and one was a lowest minimum.
- Dana1981Lv 71 decade ago
As we're constantly stating, no single local weather event is proof or disproof of global warming. It's the long-term increase in the frequency of these extreme weather events that tell us about global warming and its impacts.
For example, the fact that there have been 3 times more record hot weather events than record cold events in the USA the first decade of this century tells you something. The fact that we keep having ultra-extreme weather, like the 1-in-3,000 Russian heat wave, 1-in-1,000 Tennessee flood, 1-in-? Pakistan flood, etc. tells you something.
If you just look at the Russian heat wave, there's a 0.0003% chance that it could have been due to natural variation alone. Because it's a non-zero probability, as will be the case for any weather event no matter how extreme, you can never attribute any given weather event to global warming. But what you can say is that it's very unlikely the Russian heat wave would have happened - or at least been as intense - if not for AGW.
And more importantly, you can say that we'll be seeing extreme weather events such as these more frequently in the future because of AGW.
- Eric cLv 41 decade ago
I think with SST plummeting, and with the onset on a La Nina and a cold winter, global warming alarmist will be crying why people cannot distinguish between weather and climate, even though they are clearly educated them otherwise.