Is A.J Burnett overpaid?
Dude, making about 12-14 mllion a year and has a 4.83 ERA? Garbage!
- patsen29Lv 410 years agoFavorite Answer
Short answer: yes, he's expected to be worth about $ 56 M, not $ 82.5.
Burnett signed a contract for $ 82.5 M over 5 years, 2009 to 2013. We've seen a year and a half of the contract, and we need to project several years in the future to get a good idea. So, let's start.
On the free agent market, you can expect players to earn about $ 4.5 M per win, over a replacement player (your usual 25th man). However, since 2013 dollars are not the same as 2009 dollars, we'll say a win is about $ 4.8 M(*).
In 2009, Burnett had gotten 3.1 WAR, and so far in 2010, he's accumulated 0.5 WAR, which is below his usual, and why I assume people are panicking. Overall, he's given the team about $ 17.3 M in value.
Now, we need to do the tricky bit of projecting him forward. At the beginning of the season, the Fans projected him to 3.2 WAR. We're 45% of the way through the season, so we'll assume he'll collect 1.8 WAR over the rest of the season, which is worth $ 8.4 M. So, he's up to $ 25.7 M.
Looking forward, we'll use the rule of thumb that pitchers lose about 0.5 WAR per season. Pitchers can get better or worse, but because of the risk of injury, it's a good estimate.
2009: 3.1 WAR, $ 14.9 M
2010: 2.3 WAR, $ 11.0 M
2011: 2.6 WAR, $ 12.5 M
2012: 2.1 WAR, $ 10.1 M
2013: 1.6 WAR, $ 7.7 M
Total: 11.7 WAR, $ 56.2 M
It goes to show, it's very rarely a good idea to give pitchers 5+ year deals. They were expecting someone who could give them 3.4 wins a year, and it doesn't seem he's quite that good, but the deal isn't that bad.
Winners of free agent deals are often struck by what's called the winner's curse. If every player makes their estimate of what a player is worth, and it goes to auction, by definition, the winner will have overestimated the value of the player. This is why it's hard to make great deals in free agency.
But, there are a lot of variables, a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of assumptions. It's easy to comment after the fact, and a lot can happen in 3.5 years, so we might have to revisit this one later.
(*) I don't want to go too far in the economics, but I'm assuming about 5% inflation, which is halfway between the usual 10% seen in previous years and 0% seen during this recession, used as an estimate. Because of this, the dollars listed on Fangraphs won't be exactly the same.Source(s): http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=512&... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner%27s_curse
- ChaosLv 710 years ago
Wanna talk about overpaid? Look at Carlos Zambrano. At least Burnett dosen't throw tantrums all the time and blame his own teammates for not diving for a ball that was going to be a hit anyway. Anyways, I think Yankees could care less about if their overpaying a player. It's not like their low on money or going to be anytime soon. I personally do think he's overpaid, just like Alex Rodriguez who's getting 33 million this year. Yeah, that kind of money can hire like 80+ teachers, the teachers that teaches the future of America.
- 10 years ago
Yes he is overpaid dude to the fact he hasn't produced a good ERA under 4.00 as a Yankee and he has been struggling against teh AL teams which he is paid to beat all teh time
- I'm a ManLv 510 years ago
This is a statement, isn't it? Of course he is overpaid. Face the facts Yankees fans, if you want players bad enough you completely overpay for them. See Burnett and even Vasquez about that one.
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- 10 years ago
Every MLB player is overpaid. No one should get millions of dollars to play a game they love.
- C-Med21Lv 510 years ago
Yes, but so is Lackey, Beckett, Howard, Zito, Zambrano, and Santana, sometimes you get lucky like with Sabathia and sometimes you get bad luck, but at least Aj has won a world series
- Anonymous10 years ago
Yes, and so is Howard for that matter. They're closing hospitals in Philadelphia, the Phillies couldn't have paid to keep one open rather than pay that clod.
- 10 years ago
Isn't every Yankee overpaid
- 10 years ago
I'll give you CLiff for AJ... ha, no I won't
- BryanLv 610 years ago
Phillies fans, ah, you crack me up.