How do GFS/RUC forecast models work?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

^ Like that! I am trying to get myself into learning how to forecast storms, I know some bits on how to but then I want to know how to read a GFS Model..I want to know what the black lines really mean and the colors (like the greens, yellow, red, etc.) I just want to know for sure when I look days ahead I will know what I am looking at for when I go out and watch storms.

Any other tips on how to forecast severe storms would be appreciated! :)

Thanks!

Update:

The first answer is perfect! I understand CAPE (convective available potential energy) and that stuff, but the links are what I am linking for! Awesome :)

2 Answers

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  • Todd
    Lv 7
    10 years ago
    Favorite Answer

    Let's start off with some links. The first two links are for the E-wall, which is a good site maintained by the Penn State University Department of Meteorology. The first link is for a tutorial that will explain model interpretation. The second will be for E-wall it's self.

    Tutorial: http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/M...

    E-wall: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

    The next link is for theweatherprediction.com. This is an educational website that is maintained by Meteorologist Jeff Haby. It covers many aspects of meteorology and forecasting.

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

    Severe weather forecasting: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/

    Unisys Weather: another good general site with models, upper air soundings, etc.

    http://weather.unisys.com/

    If you take the time and go through the links I posted, it should give a fairly good understanding of model interpretation and severe weather forecasting.

    Here's another link you may like. It's an NWS Warning Decision Simulator. You are given scenarios, and you are the meteorologist. Based upon your radar interpretation, you issue severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings as needed. It is basically the same thing the NWS uses to train their meteorologists.

    HotSeat Simulator: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=hotseatstart

    I hope this helps.

    I'm including all of these links because, simply, the space provided here is too limited to get into upper air soundings, CAPE, lifted index, Showalter index, shear, CIN, and all the other things that are considered during severe weather forecasting.

    Source(s): Pennsylvania Department of Meteorology- E-wall Meteorologist Jeff Haby- theweatherprediction.com Unisys Weather Solutions National Weather Service- Warning Decision Training Branch
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  • Krista
    Lv 4
    4 years ago

    Dana, I must admit that I haven’t read anything about this yet (so many papers, so little time), but if I understand you correctly, what you’re saying is… Either CO2 had no effect at all in the early part of the 20th century – in which case the lines should be identical – or CO2 was having an effect, but if it was, then the PDO + CO2 line should be *higher* than the PDO only line. Since, on the graph the PDO+CO2 line is lower than the PDO only line, he must be suggesting that CO2 has a cooling effect. Is that what you’re saying? The short answer is, I’m not sure, you’d have to ask Roy, but a quick look at the next paragraph reveals the following quote… “If I include the CO2 and other forcings during the 20th Century complied by James Hansen with the PDO-forced cloud changes (solid line labeled PDO+CO2), then the fit to observed temperatures is even closer.” I think the relevant part of that sentence is “and other forcings”. I can only guess (and this is nothing but a guess – I don’t *know*) does James Hansen’s “CO2 and other forcings” data show a net cooling in the early part of the 20th century? Just a thought.

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