Will global warming deniers blame the potential global temperature record in 2010 on the Sun?
With the anthropogenic warming signal combining with the current moderate El Nino, there's a pretty good chance 2010 will become the new hottest year on record. It also appears that the next solar cycle may be starting, as there's been a surge in the number of observed sunspots.
But as NASA GISS noted back in January '09,
"Because of the large thermal inertia of the ocean, the surface temperature response to the 10-12 year solar cycle lags the irradiance variation by 1-2 years. Thus, relative to the mean, i.e, the hypothetical case in which the sun had a constant average irradiance, actual solar irradiance will continue to provide a negative anomaly for the next 2-3 years."
In other words, we're already locked in for a cooling solar effect in 2010 due to the thermal inertia lag. However, reality has never stopped deniers from making ridiculous claims. Several have been predicting cold global temperatures during the 2nd-hottest year on record due to the lack of sunspots. Do you think they'll blame the potentially record-setting heat of 2010 on the start of the next solar cycle?
jim z asks "Do you really believe that humans are responsible for the sunspots?"
No. Do you really believe the moon is made of cheese? I'm pretty sure it's not.
- Facts MatterLv 71 decade agoFavorite Answer
Don't bet on it. The hottest fifteen years were all since 1998, but year to year trends are noisy.
However, if it is, the denialists are ready. We shouldn't worry about warming because of the solar cooling trend, but if it does turn out hot, it's solar warming trend that's responsible.
See December 18 SCIENCE, free download
Reflections On: Our Planet and Its Life, Origins, and Futures
James J. McCarthy
James J. McCarthy is the Alexander Agassiz Professor of Biological Oceanography at Harvard University
- TraceyLv 44 years ago
I live within walking distance of the Pacific Ocean, and I have lived here when the alarmists/leftists were proclaiming global cooling. Over 30 years ago they started chanting global warming and predicted that where I live would have a serious rise in ocean levels, flooding lowlands, that would happen within twenty year or less. That was 25 years ago and I'm still waiting. Nothing has changed, not the ocean level, not the water temperature. The state climatologist, George Taylor, exposed the scam, and he is a real scientist, not a politician. The state governor read Taylor's report, and fired him, or tried to. Taylor wasn't politically correct. Also, I studied Earth Science in college as a minor. Also, I'm not new to science; I've spent my live working in Science and Technology. All my friends are scientists or technologists. So, don't repeat Al Gore's lies to me. This climate change hoax runs along leftist political lines, and it is fed by liars and morons. Believe it!
- Anonymous1 decade ago
They will blame whatever they thinks makes sense at the time. As I'm sure you're already aware, they already alternately chose to believe that it's been cooling or warming depending on the excuses that they are bringing out to 'prove' their particular argument. And that's just the thing. For some reason, they believe that their uncertainty and inconsistency in understanding what's really going on is proof that there is no proof of AGW. And that of course falls right into any disinformation campaign's intentions.
Deniers will claim that the figures are fudged if it does prove to be a record year, and when they can't claim that, they will 'blame' solar activity, and when they can't claim that, they will claim that it's cooling. and when they can't claim that, they will claim it's a liberal conspiracy to implement the New World Order. It will be business as usual for the deniers no matter what the past data, current conditions or the forecast.
- Anonymous1 decade ago
I am not surprised that the AGW religion would use the year that is going to come into new sun spot cycle as the hottest so far. Seeing as real scientists predict that it is going to be a doozy.
It is a pretty good bet but not a certainty so we will have to see.
Will their bet pay off. Ill offer 11/10 that the sun spots for 2010 are going to be in a pretty high range for a calendar year as well as the planet being one of the hottest.
Lets check the correlation between the two at the finish line.
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- WilliamLv 51 decade ago
No man it's the damn aliens!
They've been causing volcanic eruptions since the 1850's, they cause sunspots too, and Al Gore is one of them, but even though they've been doing that, the Earth hasn't warmed in the last 10 years.
- pegminerLv 71 decade ago
I think it's premature to talk about setting any records in a year that's barely started. If it sets a record it won't prove AGW, if it doesn't set a record it won't disprove it. I would bet against any records being set next year, not because I don't believe in AGW but because you need a significant deviation from the mean to set records, and I don't think the increase in forcing from 1998 to 2010 is so great that it will necessarily overcome the statistical fluctuation that results in a record. I would be much more comfortable taking a bet that the record will be broken in the next 5 or 10 years, or that 2010-2019 will be warmer than 2000-2009. It's hard to judge climate change on a year-to-year basis.
- Anonymous1 decade ago
2010 is tomorrow and they are predicted this stuff already. The IPCC must be
changing the numbers already to show a hot spring instead of a cold spring like
Where do they buy their tarot cards?
- Didier DrogbaLv 61 decade ago
12 years of CO2 emissions increasing at an increasing rate, and with respect to the temperature record being broken, you're still, like a Cubs fan, saying "wait 'til next year."
You insist that 12 years is a blip.
But then you insist that 20 (late 1970s-late 1990s warming) is a trend?
And you insist that WE have our heads in the sand?
- JimZLv 71 decade ago
From the article:
2009 is ending with a flurry of sunspots. Indeed, if sunspot 1039 holds together for the rest of today (prediction: it will), the month of December will accumulate a total of 22 spotted days and the final tally for the year will look like this:
Do you really believe that humans are responsible for the sunspots? It probably has more to do with H to He than from CO2.
Frankly I wouldn't count your chickens until they hatch. Even if it is a warm year, it will simply be a continuation of a beneficial trend.
- BenjaminLv 51 decade ago
They've blamed it on everything else except for rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases; that they'll blame the sun is a certainty.