The only reason why I'm saying this is because Maryse has been getting into Melina's head as of late. Once the mind games set in, usually the person playing mind games has the advantage. As aggressive Melina is, she will most likely get carried away and make a mistake, thus giving Maryse an opportunity to seize the moment. Since Maryse has returned, she's now the #1 Heel Diva on RAW again and most likely will gain the Divas Championship to continue her program with Melina.
I think Mickie James will defeat Michelle. This is the same story as Maryse and Melina, but I think Mickie James is able to control her emotional feelings from her wrestling match, which will come to play. Even if Michelle is an underdog, I think her time has come as Champion and we'll be crowning a new Champion on Smackdown.