# For those who saw Derren Brown or love arguing about probability (I'm not a maths genuis, and need advice!!)?

My husband and me are arguing over whether the example of which side the coin lands on, either heads or tails is the same as which pepper is pulled out of a bag containing 2 peppers, 1 red and 1 green, either red or green. I maintain it is more likely to get a run of the same colour or side, because there is a 1 in...
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My husband and me are arguing over whether the example of which side the coin lands on, either heads or tails is the same as which pepper is pulled out of a bag containing 2 peppers, 1 red and 1 green, either red or green. I maintain it is more likely to get a run of the same colour or side, because there is a 1 in 2 chance of pulling a green pepper out just as there is a 1 in 2 chance of the coin landing on heads. My thoughts are that a mixture of red and green (or heads and tails) is more likely, because if pepper 1 is green, then pepper 2 is more likely to be red because this is still 1 in 2, whereas for it to be green, likelihood is against it, because the green pepper would now have to be a green-pepper-that-has-been-preceded-by-a... so this would be 1 in 2 x (the likelhood of this happening twice, I don't know the exact fraction because maths is really not my strong point). Anyway, am I right? That XXX or YYY is less likely than XXY or XYY or YYX or YXX or YXY or XYX- there is 2 of the first and 6 of the second, so surely these are more likely? I'm saying that the significance in Derren Brown's stunt is that the bloke had all outcomes the same whereas the woman's were mixed- there are only 2 combinations where everything is the same, whereas there are 6 combinations where outcomes are mixed.

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