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(1) The Valley Wine Company purchases grapes from one of two nearby growers each season to produce a particular red wine. It purchases enough grapes to produce 3,000 bottles of the wine. Each grower supplies a certain portion of poor-quality grapes, resulting in a percentage of bottles being used as fillers for cheaper table wines according to the following probability distribution.

~Probability of Percentage Defective

Defective(%) Grower A ～ Grower B

2　　　～0.15　　　～0.30

4　　　～0.20　　　～0.30

6　　　～0.25　　　～0.20

8　　　～0.30　　　～0.10

10　　　～0.10　　　～0.10

Using decision tree analysis determine if the company should conduct the test market.

(２) In problem 44 determine the expected value of sample information (EVSI) (i.e., the test market value ) and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).

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(1) The Valley Wine Company purchases grapes from one of two nearby growers each season to produce a particular red wine.

Valley Wine公司每個季節向2家附近種植者的其中一家買葡萄來生產一種特別的紅酒

It purchases enough grapes to produce 3,000 bottles of the wine.

它購買了足夠的葡萄來製造3000瓶紅酒.

Each grower supplies a certain portion of poor-quality grapes, resulting in a percentage of bottles being used as fillers for cheaper table wines according to the following probability distribution.

每個種植者供應一些品質差的葡萄,導致一部分的瓶子用來填裝便宜的日常餐酒,根據下列的分配比率.

~Probability of Percentage Defective 不良百分比

Defective(%) Grower A ～ Grower B

不良比率　　種植者A　 種植者B

2　　　～0.15　　　～0.30

4　　　～0.20　　　～0.30

6　　　～0.25　　　～0.20

8　　　～0.30　　　～0.10

10　　　～0.10　　　～0.10

Using decision tree analysis determine if the company should conduct the test market.

利用決策樹分析法決定是否公司應實施試售

(２) In problem 44 determine the expected value of sample information (EVSI) (i.e., the test market value ) and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).

在問題44中,決定樣本資訊期望值(evsi) (如:試售價值)和完美資訊的期望值(evpi)