Can a recreational cyclist on a road bike beat Lance Armstrong on a full suspension fat tire mountain bike?

Please assume the race will be on a road and either flat or moderately hilly over any distance. I assume any advantages with the frame geometry or power transfer with the road bike would be lost in steep climb.
Update: Thanks for the responses. By recreational I mean someone who rides 200 miles a week and could average 20 to 25 mph for an hour TT on a moderately hilly course.
Update 2: Fair enough, can a serious amateur cyclist take Lance? I guess another way to ask my question is can an elite cyclist maintain 25 to 30 mph on a clunky mountain bike, even on a fast course. Even assuming you had the right gearing, I would think that you could not because of the technology disadvantage. I was... show more Fair enough, can a serious amateur cyclist take Lance? I guess another way to ask my question is can an elite cyclist maintain 25 to 30 mph on a clunky mountain bike, even on a fast course. Even assuming you had the right gearing, I would think that you could not because of the technology disadvantage. I was pondering the question when my friend wondered how much of a disadvantage he would have competing in a sprint tri with a mountain bike, and I was trying to give him an example of how big of a detriment it would be.
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