Don't Bet on the Renminbi
by Calla Wiemer
Posted July 30, 2008
Rumor has it that hot money is betting on a sharp appreciation of the renminbi. China’s official reserve assets seem to accumulate at ever increasing rates, and recent increases are not accounted for by the trade surplus and net foreign direct investment. It appears there’s money coming in, but why would speculators be betting on a big-time revaluation? It doesn’t fit with macroeconomic fundamentals.
2008-09-26 17:35:37 補充：
The fundamentals rest with the domestic relationship between saving and investment. The difference is the trade imbalance since saving not channeled into domestic investment becomes a capital outflow and a capital outflow is financed by export revenues not spent on imports.
2008-09-26 17:36:03 補充：
In a span of just six years, China's national saving rate rose by a dramatic 12 percentage points of gross domestic product, from 38% in 2000 to 50% in 2006 (see nearby graph). From an already high level then by international norms, it went stratospheric.
2008-09-26 17:36:56 補充：
The investment rate was also high and rose in parallel until 2004. During this stretch, the saving/investment gap ran at about two and a half percent of GDP.
2008-09-26 17:37:19 補充：
Then the investment rate flattened out at around 43% while the saving rate pushed inexorably upward, and correspondingly the trade surplus soared.
2008-09-26 17:38:56 補充：
2008-09-26 19:59:41 補充：
· 1 decade ago