Overall, between 50 to 60% of people who apply to medical school don't get in anywhere, and that number has been creeping higher. Why it's getting higher is a debate for another post (although a flagging economy always drives up grad school application rates and drives down acceptance rates). The MCAT stats you post are simply a reflection that there's much more demand than there are supply....and so the average MCAT score is much lower than the average MCAT score of students accepted to medical school.
It's not just MCAT or extracurriculars, although those are big factors. It's GPA (and what college you attend), letters of recommendations, medical-specific volunteering and shadowing (this is the big unofficial requirement of med schools). It's also about personal background and why you want to go into medicine, which is reflected in your personal statement...which is even more important than it was for college (the admissions director of my med school still can quote the story I told in mine). It's about personality and interpersonal skills--each med school requires an interview (often more) in person, and so someone with a 4.0 and a 45 might get rejected if s/he's incredible immature, inappropriate, etc.
On top of all that, it's also about the simple process of applying. Most schools have rolling admission...either formally (in terms of admitting students on a rolling basis) or informally (many that send acceptances once in the spring still offer interview spots and make decisions on a rolling basis...it's just that they announce the decisions later). Most med schools have application deadlines for the primary and secondary applications in the late fall but start interviewing late summer....so if your application isn't complete by mid-late August you're actually applying very late in the game (and lowering your chances). To get your application complete by late summer you need to submit your primary application for verification in June/July. At the med school I ended up attending the entire class had already been filled before the official application deadline (and before anyone cries foul, think about it...do you want a physician who is so disorganized and unmotivated that they couldn't be bothered to fill out an application for seven months?).
Finally, people apply to the wrong schools and often not enough of them. You're probably going to have to apply to more med schools than you did for college....no one is a sure bet at any medical school. Also, people don't bother to do research and apply to schools they aren't eligible to attend (either by state residency requirements or course requirements). People only apply to schools like HMS or UPenn when they don't have a chance in hell of ever getting even an interview invite. People apply with 2.0 GPAs when schools have GPA averages of 3.7s. People apply without having any clue why they "want" to go to med school, or apply because they like Gray's Anatomy or House, or apply because they decided to become a brain surgeon when they were five years old and haven't had a moment of introspection since. And back to my original point, when the economy is crap and jobs are hard to find, more people apply to grad school (including med school) because they have nothing better to do.
Just because someone's applying to med school doesn't mean that they are at all qualified to get accepted to one. It might seem daunting, but the process isn't a mystery. Get in touch with your school's prehealth/premed advisor to make sure you're on track. Make sure you're qualified and you'll be fine.
· 1 decade ago