What is the statistical probability of John McCain dying in office?
My data is from the third link in that search (xls file). I appreciate any help in figuring this out as possible (I like calculating things).
Okay, these are my computations so far. Using the probability of McCain dying between ages 72-73, 73-74, etc., I multiplied his chances of surviving together for four years, and then for the next four years if re-elected.
These numbers are as follows:
Term one: .96797*.96482*.96127*.95759 (death rates around 3.5 percent), providing a four year total giving McCain a 85.97 percent chance of surviving term one, or a 16.03 percent chance of death.
Term two: .95383*.94967.94492*.93950, providing an 80.41 percent chance of surviving his second term.
These numbers combined give John McCain a 69.13 percent chance of staying alive for two whole terms, or a 30.87 percent chance of dying.
In a further calculation, to account for stress, I have added 20 percent of the death rate. For example, if the death rate for a particular age is 3 percent, McCain's would be 3.6 percent. These totals give McCain's chance of staying alive 83.35 percent for term one (only down about 2.5 percent), 76.87 percent chance for staying alive in term two, and a 64.07 percent chance of staying alive for both terms.
So, McCain has roughly a 35.93 percent chance of dying in two terms in office (30.87 percent chance before stress).
Now, in addition, McCain would take office about six months from now. Chance of death from age 71-72 is 2.9363 percent. 6 months would be the square root of 1.029363, or 1.4575 percent (98.543 percent living).
In total, McCain has a 63.14 percent chance of staying alive long enough to serve two terms, or a 36.86 percent chance of dying. With using normal, no stress levels, it is still 31.88 percent.
I believe these numbers are entirely fair for Mr. McCain, and they do not include such things as presidential assassination risk, which are difficult to predict.
What do you think? Obama is about 25 years younger...