Can Barack Obama really end the war in Iraq? If yes, then how long do you think it will take?
I was wondering if anyone thinks he can realistically end the war in Iraq and if so, how long do you think American troops will be in Iraq once gets into office? My friends believe maybe a couple of months while others say two years. I believe that if he is elected, they will be pulled out definitely during his first term. Anyone have any insights, I'm just curious since I'll probably head to Iraq during his administration.
jtrusnik, I found your answer to be very insightful but you said that we will always have troops in Iraq, what about a complete withdrawal like Vietnam? Its hard to imagine the US in Iraq the same way they are in Korea, Japan or other parts of the world, it just seems highly unlikely. I'm wondering what your opinion is to this is. Thanks for the answers so far.
- jtrusnikLv 71 decade agoFavorite Answer
We will always have troops in Iraq, just like we still have troops in Germany and Japan. The question that I think is more relevant is whether or not we'll have active combat brigades.
The answer is simple: nobody, regardless of political affiliation, is capable of bringing all the troops back home. Obama might be sincere in his desire to work towards bringing them back as quickly as possible, but it's completely unrealistic for two primary reasons:
1 - Iraq is not stable enough to handle its own internal security. This will lead to civil war. And when the world sees how bad it gets when we're not there, this is what they will say: "The U.S. took their country apart and left before putting it back together." With that attitude, our allies will drift further away. And, who do you think would win that civil war? A democratic group that gives everybody involved a day? Or a dictator with a powerful enough base to crush any opposition?
2 - Iraq's military is not large enough to defend it. Iran and Iraq fought from 1980-1988 over a strip of land that would give Iran better access to the Persian Gulf. Against a weakened state, Iran would have no problems taking that land.
Obama will not be able to fill the occupier duties to Iraq and still pull them out...not in 1 term, not in 2 terms. It isn't a mark against him as a candidate; it's just something that nobody could successfully do at this time. That's why he hasn't come forward with a plan about how he could accomplish this goal.
Also, if you do go, I wish you luck and a safe return.Source(s): EDIT: Vietnam was a little different...we were being pushed out by a well-organized resistance group that was funded by China, and we held out as long as we could. While some Iraqi groups are being supplied and funded by Iran, most of the sects are independent of one another, and have no real loyalties to hold them together. Once we leave, they'll break into their old squabbles instead of forming one semi-unified government. A better analogy, I believe, would be to compare Iraq to the territories & peoples that eventually formed Pakistan and India...friends when unified against a common colonial enemy, bitter enemies after a hasty British exit. I do think we'll always have troops in Iraq. It's a central location in the Middle East, which gives the U.S. flexibility and speed to respond to any group or peoples that the powers-that-be deem a threat to the U.S. or its allies, be it terrorists or some state-sponsored act. The only real alternatives are Qatar and Israel (neither of which has defensive depth), Saudi Arabia (who we have been trying to rely on less and less for a variety of social reasons). Saudi Arabia also didn't really step up anti-terrorist operations until after we had attacked Iraq, signifying that, if they wouldn't help us fight the groups that threatened us, that we would find a more reliable base-of-operations. Turkey would be a great alternative to Iraq (especially considering they're a NATO country), but the Kurdish areas in the south are unstable, and often a part of the country that Turkey doesn't like having foreign power able to observe on a day-to-day basis. There were reasons why they didn't allow us to stage an invasion on Iraq from their borders. So, from a strictly strategic point of view, Iraq really is a gem if the country could be stabilized. The U.S. won't be passing on the opportunity. As I said before, I do think the combat brigades will eventually be withdrawn, I just don't think the Iraqi government will be in a position to provide security to their entire nation and be able to guard their borders in a mere 4 years. But I am optimistic that it will eventually happen.
- John de WittLv 71 decade ago
Anybody who tells you he can predict what's going to happen in Iraq is pulling your chain. Right now it looks as if the Iraqis are working things out among themselves and may not either need or want a long-term American military presence, and if that's the case in two years, we could be out except for a small force under a McCain administration, whereas an Obama administration trying to get us out too fast (which isn't as likely as many Obama supporters seem to think) might actually set back the clock a year or so. Both possibilities have built into them an aspect of the self-fulfilling prophesies, too, since Iraqis and others in Iraq also read the news.
With the level of violence markedly down now, the Iraqi army beginning to show some capability, and tenuous cease-fires through most of the country, and with troop levels already having dropped, the issue is more one of pique than of current reality on the ground, anyway. The anti-war movement is more about how things were a few years ago than how they are now.
- 1 decade ago
WHen it comes to the war in iraq, it would be extremely dangerous to pull out immediately. A steady pull out of Iraq would be much better. After what happened during vietnam (which the united states lost), pulling out at a fast rate, could end up causing the country to fall. As many of us know, the goverment did indeed lie to us aboutt he real reasons behind us going to Iraq. We can not justify what George W. Bush did, because it was wrong. As for Barrack Obama getting the troops out of iraq, i do see it happening.
Obama has remained true to his word, since the beginning of his campaign. We can not give up on him now. As for the time length that i think it will take to get our men and women out of this war, it is hard to say.
I would hope that they wouldn't do an immediate removale for that could cause more problems then this country is looking for. I would say that Obama will have us out of Iraq with in the first two-three years of his term.
Once the war in Iraq, is out of american hands, this country can once again gain the power it once had. I know Obama is looking for that, and he isn't about to give up. Just believe in him and things will turn out okay.
- Anonymous1 decade ago
It all comes down to the Congressional elections this fall. If the Democrats gain an overwhelming majority this time around, the chances are good you're right. If not, it will be politics of compromise as usual; more money for war in return for more money for social programs, and the war will continue.
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- Anonymous1 decade ago
In a speech last week he plainly said we would still have over 50,000 troops there at the end of his second term of office. So apparently he will not be bringing very many home very soon. Heard on ABC evening news late last week.
- siqueirosLv 43 years ago
present day troop tiers in Iraq are approximately one hundred forty,000. the present administration has reported that 35,000 to 50,000 may be there for the foreseeable destiny. lots for withdrawal in sixteen months as promised. additionally be conscious, that there are approximately 20,000 presently in Afghanistan. And that selection is desperate to almost double this year (one greater 17,000) that present day administration has committed) with the opportunity of two times that selection being deployed next year. (the present administration is understanding those "info")
- World's GreatestLv 41 decade ago
To end the war properly would take a while. Pulling out immediately is dangerous and will do more harm than good
- 1 decade ago
Obama said he would go back in if things go out of hand or really bad i forget which..
When he "Pulls out" things WILL get bad again thus he would have to go back in...
His statements just show how naive he really is in foreign policy amongst other things...
You can't get out of Iraq with out winning first...
Oh and Good luck over there if you go....
I have family over there as well.
- Anonymous1 decade ago
As Commander-in-Chief, he could order an immediate withdrawal. That'd take less than a month