紫龍 asked in 社會與文化語言 · 1 decade ago

英文翻譯(請勿用翻譯軟體)

(For a briefreview emphasizing developments in theory prior to

the 1980s, see Clements & Hendry, 1998.) One of its

pioneers was Charles Sarle (Sarle, 1925), whose single

equation model for forecasting the price of hogs was

published in a special supplement to the American

Economic Review. His work won the Babson prize,

awarded for the best essay submitted by a student, as

judged by a committee of eminent economists. Sarle

was several decades ahead of his time. He used lagged

explanatory variables, so that their values were known

at the time of forecast, an early form of leading

indicator; and he performed both within-sample and

out-of-sample forecasts. Although his work was

published in the leading economic journal, it was then

largely ignored. Such is the fate of many a pioneer.

Why this occurred is the subject of a fascinating

reappraisal of Sarle’s work by Gordon and Kerr (1997).

With the advantage of modern techniques and computing

power, Gordon and Kerr determined that Sarle’s

model was reasonably well specified. They surmise

that it remained unknown for two reasons. First,

Ezekiel, who did become well known, wrote a

subsequent article in which he criticized Sarle’s choice

of variables. Second, econometric forecasting lost

popularity shortly after the publication of Sarle’s

article. Arguments circulating at the time that the

nature of economic data made forecasting them

impossible were apparently persuasive enough to lead

to the demise of econometric forecasting. It reappeared

in the 1940s and 1950s, by which time articles

published in the 1920s had been largely forgotten.

By the 1920s, the product-moment method of calculating

correlations and regressions was known, thanks to

the path-breaking paper by Karl Pearson (Pearson, 1896).

Today, Sarle’s model and method are regarded as

primitive, handicapped as he was by both the length of

variable series he could collect, and by the processing

power of mechanical calculators then available.

1 Answer

Rating
  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago
    Best Answer

    (一briefreview強調發展在理論之前

    20世紀80年代,見克萊蒙特&亨德利, 1998年)之一,其

    先鋒是查爾斯sarle ( sarle , 1925年) ,其單

    方程模型預測的價格是豬

    發表在一個特別的補充美國

    經濟檢討。他的工作贏得了巴布森獎,

    批出最佳徵文提交的一名學生,作為

    判斷一個委員會,知名經濟學家。 sarle

    是幾十年前他的時間。他用落後

    解釋變數,使他們的價值觀被稱為

    在時間的預測,早期形式的領導

    指標;和他的表現無論在樣本和

    地地道道的樣本的預測。雖然他的工作是

    發表在領導經濟日報,當時

    很大程度上忽視了。就是這樣的命運,許多的先驅。

    為什麼發生這種情況是受到了一個迷人的

    重新評估sarle的工作,戈登和克爾( 1997年) 。

    與利用現代技術和計算

    電力,戈登和科爾確定sarle的

    模型合理,以及指定的。他們推測

    它仍然是未知的原因有兩個。首先,

    以西結書,誰沒有成為人所共知的,寫了一

    隨後的文章中,他批評sarle的選擇

    的變數。第二,計量經濟預測失去了

    人氣後不久出版sarle的

    文章。論據循環在時間,該

    性質的經濟數據作出預測他們

    顯然是不可能的說服力不夠導致

    向消亡的計量經濟預測。它再現

    在20世紀40年代和20世紀50年代,到那個時候的文章

    發表在20世紀20年代已基本上被遺忘。

    由20世紀20年代,產品矩的計算方法

    相關和回歸是眾所周知的,感謝

    路徑打破文件皮爾遜(皮爾遜, 1896 ) 。

    今天, sarle的模型和方法,被視為

    原始,殘疾人,因為他是由雙方的長度

    變了一系列他可以收集,及由加工

    電力機械,計算機,然後可。

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