bill t
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bill t asked in Politics & GovernmentElections · 1 decade ago

Why do Obama supporters think he will win?

Many states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan , and Florida become even more uphill battleground states that are worth a lot more than Colorado and Kansas. He will also be losing Kentucky and West Virginia for sure.

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  • 1 decade ago
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    I am from the U.K and have never really got into U.S elections before, This time its different I am older and more interested.

    I like Hillary - I think she would be good for America, but my concerns are would Bill be running the show from behind the scenes if she were elected? Also sometimes I just can not keep a straight face when I see her on T.V with the whole Monika Lewinsky thing!?! Cigar anyone?

    Obama - May not have the experience of Hillary by any means but he is something new - a breath of fresh air!

    I like his style and the only thing that I found concerning to his run was the stupid pastor of his church that ovbiously got too big for his boots and power hungry.

    This is a Great time for America - especially with Bush finally going!!

    My money will be on obama winning, It sure is going to be nice to see a change - Either a woman or an Arfican American being president. Go Obama!!

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  • 1 decade ago

    True Believers Syndrome. Look at Tom Cruise. I think it would be easier to convince Cruise rather than Obamaramas that their candidate is nothing more than a political opportunist, a fraud.

    Boy are they in for a surprise come election day, that not everyone thinks Obama is the Messiah.

    EDIT: to Van Glorious

    I think you're being a bit naive. Should Hilliary not be the nominee, i'lll vote for the next best alternative, John McCain. And this is coming from an Asian, a Democrat.

    Also, should people vote according to race like you have implied, then i can assure you that Obama is screwed.

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  • 1 decade ago

    Well, the polls still put him pretty competitive in those states, and also in many others- its not just Colorado but also Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, and North Carolina where he looks like he has a good chance.

    And the Republicans as a whole are getting hammered right now - the Dems are going to win a lot of downticket races that might help Obama up the ticket. Granted, McCain seems to be immune to this, but we will see how long that lasts when people begin to see his real record and the maverick label is called into question.

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  • 1 decade ago

    Actually, the odds are with Obama over Clinton.

    Both will take states that always go Democrat; states like California, New York, most of the Northeast and Northwest. No real advantage for either there.

    They will probably lose the Southwest overall to McCain. Both should anyway. McCain's attempt at immigration reform was set up in a way to prevent new ones from coming in, while at the same time protecting the immigrants that were already here and that the Southwest voters have gotten to know as friends. This should give him the Southwest.

    So now we come to swing states. That would be Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

    I'll take the easy one first. Only Clinton can win Florida. I absolutely agree that Obama will lose Florida. His fight to not count them will not sit well there, and he will lose it. Clinton's fight to count them will give her a real chance and the odds are for her over McCain; but remember that it is an inherently center-right state, McCain isn't guaranteed a loss there if Clinton is the nominee. Odds are still with Clinton.

    However, Obama has a counter to this that looks to be more important, the South. To take the South, the Republicans have relied entirely on the Religious Right giving them the Bible Belt. Unfortunately for McCain, comments he made back in 2000 on the leadership of the Religious Right has still hurt him today. They don't like him. If they vote they will side with McCain over Clinton or Obama, but most likely they'll stay home.

    What should be pointed out however, is that all those Bible Belt states also have a huge black population. With the loss of support from the Religious Right for McCain, and the heavy black turnout for Obama, Obama looks to take the South. And it is a weakness that Clinton could not exploit. If she takes the nomination now, she'll have to do it by "stealing" the nomination using superdelegates. If she does this, she'll make all those black voters feel disenfranchised by a system that most of them feel already favors white people. If she takes this nomination, she'll lose the black vote; which means that McCain takes the South if she wins, but Obama takes the South if he wins.

    A gain of North and South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and probable wins in Arkansas and Louisiana is a great tradeoff for losing Florida. This is where Obama actually gets the statistics in his favor over Clinton.

    Michigan is up next. Many would think that Obama would lose this for the same reason he would lose Florida. But that is probably not true. It has a high black population, and is a very pro-Union state. That will keep it in Obama's corner. Both Democrats win this, because Clinton's fight to count them will give it to her if she has the nomination.

    And finally, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Clinton does have something of an argument here, she won both states. But it should be noted that she did that by sliding her politics from center-left, to center, and finally to center-right. That is where McCain is as well. So contrary to her claim, she will not be getting the entire vote she got during the primaries. She will be splitting them with McCain. But if she steals the nomination, she'll lose the rest of the party in both states. So if she splits her base with McCain and gets nothing else, she loses both states.

    Obama will probably lose those votes as he did during the primaries. But he will maintain the rest of the base, and that will be the Democrats' only real chance of taking either OH or PA. And the fact that these two states have been the worst hit by the sagging economy (under Bush) might turn enough of them against McCain (who is going with Bush's economic policies) to give Obama real chance of winning either or both states.

    Then there is also the fact that these two states have also taken the biggest losses in the Iraq War. While every state has lost some, these two states have lost the most. That also might be enough to turn them away from pro-war McCain to anti-war Obama.

    McCain has the odds on PA and OH no matter who wins the Dem. nomination. But if a Democrat can find a way to take it, it can only be Obama. Clinton will lose too many Democrats during the nomination if she is the winner.

    So if Clinton wins she takes every state that Gore and Kerry took in their respective campaigns. But she also takes Florida, the state that gave Bush the win really and the state that Gore and Kerry both lost when they really needed them. Kerry did lose it in Ohio, but Ohio would not have mattered if he had not already lost Florida. Clinton wins what they won, but takes Florida and wins the whole thing.

    But Obama takes the same states except for Florida, but takes states the Gore and Kerry didn't take in 2000 and 2004, and that Clinton is incapable of taking now. Enough states in the South that the odds are more for him winning than Clinton winning.

    But while it may be closer for Clinton than Obama, the odds are either one beats McCain in November.

    Source(s): For the record, I don't support any candidate nor any party. This is simply my analysis of the situation as it stands.
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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    I think Obama will win simply because McCain cannot and I will tell you several reasons why.

    1. When Hillary is out of the picture and McCain steps up with his Rev Wright argument, Obama will counter with the reverends Rod Parsley, John Hagee, and Jerry Falwell.

    2. McCain will not carry the Black vote against a Black candidate (sorry Black Republicans....you know it, I know it, let's move on.)

    3. McCain will not carry the Asian vote once the "I hate gooks!" reel comes back into the picture.

    4. McCain already has lost most of the youth vote to Obama with his talk of going to war, AGAIN and staying in Iraq.

    5. Many of Clinton's supporters on the Democrat side (who are faithful to the party) will vote for Obama anyway.

    ...all of these factors, along with the default appeal Obama has thru his campaign are reasons, not only why Obama will win, but why McCain cannot.

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    Because he is for change. He wants to change the way we change things so that change will help us get through the hard times from the way things changed when it got bad.

    What a JOKE !!!! He is only where he is because he is black....if you put a white man on the stage saying the exact same thing he is...they would be laughed out of the building.

    He is a smooth talker....but then again so was Hitler...and so was SATAN. They promised you the world....but you wind up spending eternity in H E L L.

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    Primaries are one thing. The general election is another. The American people will have a clear choice to how they want their president to proceed on their behalf.

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    They live in a bubble... and hear and see only what they can tolerate within their small spherical environment!

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    Because most of them are crack smoking, uneducated, welfare recipients that know no better hell just look at their Idiotic responses on here they cant give you one educated reason why you should vote for him........Other than change man we need change you know look how bad things is.....My source proves this.......................

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  • Anonymous
    1 decade ago

    its because Americans wont pick another 4 yrs of Republican disaster of same policies of Bush

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