You'll be able to afford a $200,000 house, but you have to budget in the taxes. The taxes usaully make or break a deal.
Here in NY, taxes are very high. i.e. $8,000 a year so that will bring your monthly payment up almost $800 a month.
If I was you, I would aim for a cheaper house (or condo) for $150,000-$175,000.00