# 財務報告分析研究個案解答之中文解釋

a.

Dividend discount model:

0%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.50/1.12) + (.60/1.13) + (.60/1.14) + (.70/1.15) + ((.70/.1)/ 1.16)] = \$6.11

4%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.50/1.12) + (.60/1.13) + (.60/1.14) + (.70/1.15) + (((.70 x 1.04)/(.1-.04))/ 1.16)] = \$9.01

7%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.50/1.12) + (.60/1.13) + (.60/1.14) + (.70/1.15) + (((.70 x 1.07)/(.1-.07))/ 1.16)] = \$16.26

Free cash flow model:

0%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.75/1.12) - (.10/1.13) + (.65/1.14) + (.30/1.15) + ((.30/.1)/ 1.16)] = \$3.32

4%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.75/1.12) - (.10/1.13) + (.65/1.14) + (.30/1.15) + (((.30 x 1.04)/(.1-.04))/ 1.16)] = \$4.56

7%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.75/1.12) - (.10/1.13) + (.65/1.14) + (.30/1.15) + (((.30 x 1.07)/(.1-.07))/ 1.16)] = \$7.67

Residual income model:

0%: Vt =11 + (.35/1.1) + (.255/1.12) + (.21/1.13) + (.92/1.14) + (1.05/1.15) + ((1.05/.1)/ 1.16) = \$18.89

4%: Vt =11 + (.35/1.1) +(.255/1.12) + (.21/1.13) +(.92/1.14) + (1.05/1.15) + (((1.05x1.04)/(.1-.04))/ 1.16) = \$23.24

7%: Vt =11 + (.35/1.1) +(.255/1.12) + (.21/1.13) +(.92/1.14) + (1.05/1.15) + (((1.05x1.07)/(.1-.07))/ 1.16) = \$34.11

b.The current stock price appears to reflect an earnings growth rate of at least 4% in perpetuity. A 4% or higher growth rate is difficult to maintain. Similarly, the forecasts for both free cash flows and dividend do not justify the current stock price. Accordingly, one might recommend a sale of this stock from your portfolio.

c.Support for the residual income model is aided by its ability to directly factor in current book value and the earnings growth potential—both readily assessable data. Each of these data is arguable more predictable than either future cash flows or dividends—the latter two variables must be estimated to use the other valuation models.

Rating

a.

股息折扣模型：

0%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.50/1.12) + (.60/1.13) + (.60/1.14) + (.70/1.15) + ((.70/.1)/1.16)] = \$6.11

4%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.50/1.12) + (.60/1.13) + (.60/1.14) + (.70/1.15) + (((.70 x 1.04)/(.1-.04))/1.16)] = \$9.01

7%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.50/1.12) + (.60/1.13) + (.60/1.14) + (.70/1.15) + (((.70 x 1.07)/(.1-.07))/1.16)] = \$16.26

現金流動模型：

0%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.75/1.12) - (.10/1.13) + (.65/1.14) + (.30/1.15) + ((.30/.1)/1.16)] = \$3.32

4%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.75/1.12) - (.10/1.13) + (.65/1.14) + (.30/1.15) + (((.30 x 1.04)/(.1-.04))/1.16)] = \$4.56

7%: Vt = [(.50/1.1) + (.75/1.12) - (.10/1.13) + (.65/1.14) + (.30/1.15) + (((.30 x 1.07)/(.1-.07))/1.16)] = \$7.67

殘餘的收入模型：

0%: Vt =11 + (.35/1.1) + (.255/1.12) + (.21/1.13) + (.92/1.14) + (1.05/1.15) + ((1.05/.1)/1.16) = \$18.89

4%: Vt =11 + (.35/1.1) + (.255/1.12) + (.21/1.13) + (.92/1.14) + (1.05/1.15) + (((1.05x1.04)/(.1-.04))/1.16) = \$23.24

7%: Vt =11 + (.35/1.1) + (.255/1.12) + (.21/1.13) + (.92/1.14) + (1.05/1.15) + (((1.05x1.07)/(.1-.07))/1.16) = \$34.11

b.The當前股票價格看上去反射收入生長率在最少4%在永久。 4%或更高的生長率是難維護。同樣，展望對兩現金流動和股息不辯解當前股票價格。 相應地，有人可能推薦這個股票銷售從您的股份單。

c.Support為殘餘收入模型由它的能力直接地析因在當前帳面價值和收入生長潛力 Xboth欣然可評價的數據援助。 每一個這些數據比必須估計未來現金流動或股息 Xthe後者二可變物使用其他估價模型可爭論可預測。