What do investment experts think of Martin D. Weiss's (editor of "Safe Money Report")?
article titled, "Wall Street's Next Melt Down?" (You will have to Google this article as I do not know how to add a link to this article). Thanks!
- 1 decade agoFavorite Answer
That's not an article, it's a sales letter.
I have a lot of respect for much of what Weiss says. And I recommend his services for evaluating the financial standing of life insurance companies. A lot of what's in his book is good advice.
That said, you must also remember that Weiss publishes his Safe Money Report, which is a financial newsletter designed to be a low-cost entry level to his more expensive financial advice, on which he makes tons of money.
In the mid 1990s or so, this was just one more financial newsletter in the marketplace. Then Weiss hired top copywriter/marketer Clayton Makepeace, and in a few years Safe Money Report was one of the top selling newsletters in the country.
Although in retrospect the late 1990s bull market seems like a total party, at the time there were apparent threats. Makepeace knew how to push your fear buttons unmercifully.
He predicted at least 10 of the last 3 stock market crashes.
After the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis and Russian stock market meltdown, Weiss predicted that deflation would come to the U.S. also. Didn't happen.
I don't know when he started warning of derivatives. Their overuse almost brought down the world's financial markets in the summer of 1998, when the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management bet against U.S Treasury bonds at the very worst time -- and the Fed had to do an emergency intervention at that time. So intervention by the Fed with Bear Stearns is not unprecedented, though certainly not a good sign.
Weiss also joined the parade of Y2K doomsayers. But I've always wondered how sincere he was, since he was advising people to buy puts on the stock market that expired in December 1999 -- before the computer disaster would happen.
If he really believed that the world's computers were going to hell on January 1, 2000, why didn't he advise people to buy later puts?
After all, the big money from owning puts comes DURING a stock market crash, not before it.
When I subscribed to Safe Money Report, I sent him an email asking him why he didn't advise us to buy January 2000 or later puts. Someone (probably a staffer and not Weiss himself), wrote me back that he was "comfortable" with their advice.
I felt this was extremely patronizing.
They didn't bother to explain anything to me, just wanted to shut me up like I was an idiot. I brought up a legitimate point, and they simply patted me on the head and said, go away, we're "comfortable," so don't question our advice.
My belief is that Weiss expected the stock market to crash in December 1999 in anticipation of a Y2K disaster. That is, he thought investors would start selling like crazy in November and December 1999, to avoid losing money during the January crash. Didn't happen.
But that's the only reason I can think of to advise us to buy December 1999 puts when the market was not going to crash due to computer error until after those puts expired.
He also was advising people to put money into the Rydex bear funds, which is a bet against the stock market. Probably people lost money on that advice, since the stock market continued to rise until March 2000, when the tech sector started to slide.
To be fair, he also warned of the overvaluation of tech stocks.
And the accounting frauds of Enron, etc gave me him more legitimate problems to warn us about. But the massive numbers of other corporations he predicted were going to go bankrupt, haven't yet.
More recently, his copywriters have taken a more subdued approach. Perhaps he's switching back to a fear-based approach because it suits the current climate.
So Weiss is worth listening to, but remember that he's a chronic bear. Since the market can go down -- and we are indeed in perilous financial times -- he can often look right, although things don't get as bad as he predicts.
That isn't to say that the U.S. and world economy are hunky dory right now -- that's not true at all. There is great danger, and what's going to happen next, I don't know either. Nobody does. Not you, not other experts on Yahoo Answers, not Martin Weiss.
My safe money recommendation for long term funds -- Swiss annuities denominated in Swiss francs.
I wonder if Weiss is recommending them? He must know that no Swiss life insurance company has ever gone out of business.
best, Rick StookerSource(s): Free ecourse -- 7 Reasons to Invest for Income During These Hard Times http://www.IncomeInvestHome.com/ecourse/1.htm
- 1 decade ago
I don't know what experts think, but I have subscribed to the letter for many years, and it is not anything to write home about. I subscribe to many financial newsletters, really as a hobby. It started years ago when I had the foolish idea that the people who wrote these newsletters had some sort of deep insight into the economy.
They do not.
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- Swaminathan PLv 51 decade ago
I have due respect for Mr. Martin D. Weiss and his forecast; strategy, etc.,
In my opinion all these alerts should have come atlease 18 to 24 months before.
present recession is not because of sub-prime (can we call it crime) alone. It is also not because of fall in home sales, depressed consumer purchasing power, etc.,
there is strong cold war has commenced - the threat to global economy is from OPEC - higher crude price - accumlation of Gold by few countries in place of widely exchanged US Dollars (internationally accepted soft exchange currency) resulting capital out flow.
there are many more unfolded issues - medias - economists - strategists need to work and bring out most comprehensive report.Source(s): investor - professional in Materials Management