Here's my ranking from most likely to least with the odds in parentheses.
1. Indianapolis Colts (3:2)
People tend to forget the Colts outplayed the Patriots for 50 minutes and at times even managed to slow down Tom Brady. Then the wheels came off the wagon as the Colts allowed the Patriots to score two quick touchdowns and Peyton Manning lost a critical fumble. In addition to all their offensive weapons, the Colts allowed the least points in NFL and boasted the NFL's #1 pass defense, allowing only 167 yards a game. Yes, the loss of Dwight Freeney hurts, but the Colts still played some pretty darn good defense after he got hurt too. The Colts have a substantial advantage over the Patriots in the ground game with Joseph Addai, which may be a critical factor in the likely event of bad weather in Foxborough. The key will how be how well Peyton Manning well handles Belichick's complex defenses and the bad weather, things he has not handled very well in past. In their Week 9 matchup, the Colts' defense did their part holding the Patriots to a season-low 24 points and although Addai had a huge game, the Colts managed only 20 points and the argument could be made that Manning didn't pull his weight. It's not very often that you talk about Manning as a potential liability, but if he can play anywhere close to as well as Brady, I think the Colts have a very, very good chance to do the impossible and beat the undefeated Patriots.
2. San Diego Chargers (5:1)
Yes, the Patriots did crush the Chargers 38-14 in Week 2. However the Chargers were simply not a good football team the first quarter of the season, so I'm not going to read to much into that game. Heck, they lost by 14 points to 4-12 Kansas City early on. Since Week 5 they've averaged 28.5 points scored and 15 points allowed per game compared to NE's 36.8 points scored and 17.1 points allowed and Indy's 29 points scored and 16.4 points allowed season average. That would suggest that the Chargers at least belong in the discussion. On offense they have the best RB with Tomlinson and the best TE with Gates in the NFL and that makes it difficult for anyone to defend. Defensively they are very good also and led the league in turnovers forced. They intercepted 30 passes (8 more than any team in the NFL) which could come in very handy against a team that passes as much as the Patriots. Phillip Rivers is inconsistent and it would require him to have his best game of the season though. Also even though San Diego had a strong finish to the season, I still feel that Norv Turner is a very poor record. There are some question marks, but the main ingredient you need to upset the Patriots is talent and the Chargers have an awfully lot of it. All in all I think the Chargers are the team with the second best chance to beat the Patriots.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10:1)
The Jaguars have a very good team and will likely go into Pittsburgh and win, but can the ground heavy Jaguars possibly score enough points to win against an offense as good as the Patriots? David Garrard had a very solid season but benefitted from not having to pass much because of the Jaguars' running game. If Jacksonville falls behind early and is forced to pass more than usual can Garrard handle the increased load? I doubt it, especially without a single above receiving threat. The Jaguars only chance is for horrible weather that bogs down New England's passing attack.
4. Dallas Cowboys (10:1)
The Cowboys scored the second most points in the NFL behind the Patriots and managed to score a very respectable 27 points in their Week 6 matchup. That's the good news. The bad news is their defense allowed the Patriots to score 48 points that week and for the season allowed the second most points of any team going to the playoffs. Also Tony Romo had a phenomenal season but his play the last three weeks of the season has been shaky. I have to wonder about his confidence going into the playoffs given that and his botched hold last year against Seattle in the playoffs. Also will Terrell Owens be fully healthy from his ankle injury after the bye week? The Cowboys are still the favorite in the NFC, but beating New England is a long shot.
5. Green Bay Packers (20:1)
The Packers were the only one of the 13-win teams that New England. Brett Favre is a great story and has proven that he can carry his team to big wins, but beating New England would really be stretching it. He did managed to beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXI, but it will be a little harder to beat Tom Brady than Drew Bledsoe. After the Steelers, the Packers are the team that I'd most like to see win it all, but realistically.....well let's just it's more likely than it will be 80 degrees in Green Bay this winter.
6. New York Giants (30:1)
This ranking for the Giants is a good deal higher than I thought it would be say two days ago. I was impressed with how well the Giants played against the Patriots Saturday, particularly in a game that meant nothing to them. That was the best game I've seen Eli Manning play in a while. Still the Giants allowed the most points of any team going to the playoffs, making it extremely unlikely that a rematch would even be as close as Saturday's game.
7. Seattle Seahawks (30:1)
Seattle is turning into an annual division winner in the otherwise pathetic NFC West. However they beat only one team with a winning record this year which leads me to question how well they will do in the playoffs. Matt Hasselbeck had a very good season, but Shaun Alexander looks like he's completely over-the-hill. I don't think this Seahawks team is as good as the ones who made it to the Super Bowl two years ago, let alone good enough to challenge the Patriots.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (50:1)
Before their Week 14, Anthony Smith infamously guaranteed a win vs. Patriots. What an idiot. Smith was frequently picked on as the Patriots crushed the Steelers 34-13. The Steelers have struggled badly the second half of the season, losing to the Jets and Ravens, almost losing Miami, and the once-mighty defense got mauled in losses to New England and Jacksonville. The season ending injuries to Aaron Smith and Willie Parker don't exactly help matters much either. Thank goodness we played St. Louis at the right time or we probably wouldn't be going to the playoffs. So what's more likely: Anthony Smith guaranteeing another win or the Steelers making a credible run at beating the Patriots? I'll leave that one up to you.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50:1)
Like Seattle, the Bucs benefitted from an awful division. The Bucs defense is solid allowing the fewest points in the NFC, but they lack the offense necessary to play with New England. Jeff Garcia is an above average quarterback and doesn't make mistakes, but he doesn't have enough playmakers around him.
10. Tennessee Titans (100:1)
I think Jeff Fisher is a heck of a coach. Every year you think the Titans are going to be awful, yet he always manages to have his team in contention. Their defense is also very good and underrated. However the Titans only scored 18 points a game, by far the least of any team going to the playoff. The Patriots scored at least 20 points every game this season. You do the math.
11. Washington Redskins (100:1)
The Redskins are a feel-good story rebounding to make the playoffs after the tragic murder of Sean Taylor. Sooner or later we're going to have to see a reason why Todd Collins went over 10 years between starts. Oh and by the way when the teams met in the regular season, the Patriots pulled out a cliffhanger 52-7.