急~~~The economist 的一段文章 需要翻譯
這是economist 裡面的一段文章 因為要做報告的關係有點急
There is a theoretical argument to explain how expectations anchor inflation. A surprise increase in demand should lead firms to raise prices by less if they expect inflation to be low. That should translate into a flatter relationship between unemployment and inflation. Furthermore, some models predict that when inflation is low, firms reset prices less often. If central banks have managed to anchor inflation expectations at low levels, a bigger part of any expansion in demand should be transmitted into higher output and employment and less into inflation than in the 1970s. According to Charles Bean, the Bank of England’s chief economist, the flattening Phillips curve is evidence of the power of monetary policy to keep a lid on inflation. If the public expects inflation to remain low and stable, central banks have a little more margin for error-so that even if policy is somewhat looser than it should be, inflation is less likely to take off. Columbia University’s Michael Woodford puts it even more strongly. “Not only do expectations about policy matter,” he writes, “but, at least under current conditions, very little else matters.”
The flattening Phillips curve is not the only evidence of central banks’ success in taming inflation. Inflation has also become much less persistent, in that a change in inflation dies away more quickly. According to Freeric Mishkin, a Fed governor, changes in American inflation in earlier decades were almost permanent, but since the late 1990s they have become relatively short-lived. Research in the euro area suggests that inflation has become less persistent there too, although it is more durable than in America.
- Anonymous1 decade agoFavorite Answer
有一個屬於理論性的論點說明了預期的心理是如何抑止通貨膨脹。如果企業期待了低通貨膨脹率, 需求量異常的增加不會造成企業把價位提的太高。此外, 一些研究預測說當通貨膨脹低時, 企業不會去經常調整價位。相對於70 年代, 如果中央銀行設法降低對通貨膨脹的預期心理, 需求量大幅的增加會造成較高的產量和就業率以及較低的通貨膨脹率。根據英國銀行的主經濟師, Charles Dean, 平坦的菲利普曲線顯示的是貨幣政策對通貨膨脹壓制的力量。如果大眾期望通貨膨脹會持續維持低和穩定, 央行可以有更多犯錯的空間, 所以就算較寬鬆的政策, 通貨膨脹也不會快速的增加。哥倫比亞大學的 Michael Woodford甚至更強調的寫說” 不僅是對政策的預期心理很重要, 但至少以目前的情況, 其他的並不是那麼的相關。
平坦的菲利普曲線並不是央行對通貨膨脹緩和的成功上唯一的證據。通貨膨脹也會變的比較沒那麼持久, 就算有一點變化也會迅速的消失。根據美國聯邦儲備局的主管, Freeric Mishkin, 幾十年前在美國通貨膨脹幾乎是永久的, 但從90 年代末期起, 他們變得相對地較短暫。在歐洲共同體的地區研究也顯示通貨膨脹變得較不持久, 雖然比起美國仍然較久。Source(s): myself(住在美國十五年)