I'll tell you why, and I'm a progressive:
The Dems in Congress are the most cowardly lot I have ever seen. They attempt to pass a bill, get it vetoed, cave in, and then get scolded by the president on television. They don't even respond to that anymore. They could send the same bill up 1000 times with a little sticky note that says: "this is the bill you're getting. Sign it or get nothing." But they choose to bide their time, thinking that '08 is in the bag.
If the tide shifts, if the president allows another terrorist attack and shifts the focus to that issue, then an unqualified disaster like Giuliani could conceivably take the momentum to the White House, the same way Bush played "9/11, 24/7" in 2004. If that happens, we lose the majority and we are officially in Orwell's Oceana, boys and girls.
So no, it's not wrapped up. Thinking it is will kill us.