Every year since the NFC south started (2002), the team that won finished last the previous year. Also one of the teams in the NFC South went to at least the NFC Championship game, every year since the division started.
-2002: Tampa won (12-4, won the Super Bowl). Carolina (7-9) finished last.
-2003: Carolina won (11-5, lost in Super Bowl). Atlanta (5-11) finished last.
-2004: Atlanta won (11-5, lost in NFC Championship game). Tampa (5-11) finished last.
-2005: Tampa won (11-5, Carolina (also 11-5) as a wildcard would lose the NFC Championship game). New Orleans (3-13) finished last.
-2006: New Orleans (10-6, lost NFC Championship game) Tampa (4-12) finished last.
As you see according to this Tampa should win the division.
New Orleans needs to defend the deep ball or there gonna be in for a rough year. Their offense also need to get into sinc, and Bush needs to learn how to run between the takles or he's gonna be nothing more than a overhyped slot reciever in the NFL.
Cardboard boxes are more effective at pass blocking than atlanta's o-line. Petrino is already gettting ready to have Brian Brohm as a Falcon.
Tampa did well against New Orleans, the most over looked, yet the most important stat was that they gave up no sacks or turnovers. But against Seattle they showed the offensive sluggishness and lack of a pass rush that caused them to go 4-12 last season. BTW Tampa has never lost when Caddilac has 21 or more carries, as he did agaisnt NO.
Carolina's offense is doing fine, but they shot themselve in the foot, too many times, and squandered a lead against the Texans, who beat them 34-21. They have a string of division games a head if they come out of it with wins they will be in posisition to get a early lead in the division.