what do you think will happen to the real estate market in utah over the next 24 months?
- 1 decade agoFavorite Answer
As a State, I believe Utah will continue to post solid appreciation based on:
1. Solid migration
In 2005 Utah's population grew by 3.2% (the national average was 0.9% for the same period). The net migration to the state was 41,000 which was almost half of the total growth.
When comparing 7 different states for 2005(AZ,CO,OR,TX,NM,NV and UT) only TX had a lower cost of living index. For the same period, UT had the second highest median income (CO had the highest) translating into affordability.
3. Job creation
Utah added 56,800 in 2007 setting the growth rate at 4.7 percent (the national average is1.4%) and the unemployment rate is 2.7% (4.6% national average)
Utah has NOT seen the runaway appreciation that other States have seen over the past ten years(AZ, CA, NV, CO, ID).
The following is a quote by OFHEO Director James B. Lockhart on August 30 2007:
“House prices were basically flat in the second quarter despite tightening credit policies, rising foreclosure rates, and weakening buyer sentiment,” said Lockhart. “Significant price declines appear localized in areas with weak economies or where price increases were particularly dramatic during the housing boom.”
“These newest data show price declines in many areas that were once at the center of the housing boom,” said OFHEO Chief Economist Patrick Lawler. “Nevertheless, in most states, prices held their ground or increased slightly.”
Now, I have purchased over 80 homes in the Northern Utah market (Weber, Davis, Utah and Salt Lake counties) and I have seen steady increases in value since March of 2006. I am always scanning the data from as many sources as possible and comparing it with my own personal experience. After all, this is my "dough" we are talking about. Here is another excerpt from the latest OFHEO news release:
Highest and Lowest Appreciation:
1. The West South Central and Mountain Census Divisions continue to have the strongest housing markets. Appreciation over the past four quarters was 6.3 percent for the West South Central Division (5.6% for the purchase-only index), which includes Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. The appreciation in the Mountain Division was 6.1 percent (6.7% using the purchase-only metric).
2. The New England Census Division continues to have the most anemic house price appreciation. Prices grew 0.5 percent there between the second quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2007, more than one percentage point less than the second most sluggish Division (East North Central).
3. The states with the greatest appreciation between the second quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2007 were: Utah (15.3%), Wyoming (12.8%), Washington (9.1%), Montana (9.1%), and New Mexico (8.8%). The states with price declines for the same period were: Nevada (-1.5%), Michigan (-1.4%), California (-1.4%), Massachusetts (-1.0%), and Rhode Island (-1.0%).
4. The Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the greatest appreciation between the second quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2007 were: Wenatchee, Washington (23.5%), Provo-Orem, Utah (18.2%), and Salt Lake City, Utah (16.0%). The MSAs with the largest price declines for the same period were all in California: Merced, California (-8.7%), Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, California (-8.1%), and Stockton, California (-7.2%).
To sum it all up I strongly believe that Utah will remain a state with good migration, job growth and appreciation. Property taxes are low compared with neighboring states and there is still affordable inventory available. As states like CA and NV suffer more losses the "refugees" will continue to move to Utah.They will ALL need places to live and of course ski!Source(s): www.ofheo.gov www.census.gov www.money.cnn.com http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site29...
- mary hLv 41 decade ago
i would say it will continue to drop over these next few months- more so in the colder area of the mountains, and stabilize by say next april. by that time i would expect the market to somewhere around 8-12% lower then it is now.
but on the plus side most area of utah didnt go up majorly over the last few years , therefore it will not be much of a difference over the next couple of years in comparison to the rest of country.
the coming months are not going to be a strong market- but i dont see most areas of utah taking much of a hit on housing prices. when its all said and done i think there will be a turn around within about 30 months.