I am going with the Red Sox on this one. I will alter the order a bit.
1. Beckett - had his introduction to the AL last year. He'll come back smarter and still in his prime. He has #1 stuff, but had a rocky introduction to a league where the #9 hitter isn't an automatic out. I think he's going to assert himself this year as a true ace.
2. Schilling - a year older, which isn't a good thing when you see Father Time leaning on the top step of the dugout, ready to come get the ball for the last time. But among the smartest in the game and still has the stuff, even if he's lost a little on the fastball. I think he's a #1 on many pitching staffs, but on the Red Sox, I'm slotting him #2.
3. Papelbon - transitioning from a lights out closer isn't going to be as easy as everyone thinks. In the 9th inning, the OFFENSE has to be aggressive - there is no benefit in spoiling pitches, nobody is out there trying to waste pitches and work counts. As a starter, the offense can be patient, as each hitter will get to face him three or four times.
Having never faced the rigors of the MLB season, I am not ready to say Matsusaka is a top of the rotation pitcher just yet - but the fact that the Red Sox don't NEED him to be right away is a good thing. They can focus on developing him, and can afford the mistakes that rookie pitchers make.
Lester is battling back from Cancer, and I think in a year or two, has the potential to be a solid #2 or #3 pitcher. For this year though, the Red Sox are talking about taking it easy on him and letting him recuperate.
Wakefield's knuckler will allow him to pitch into his mid-40's. It takes no toll on his arm. He'll have good days and bad days, which means bottom of the rotation, but it's a great option to have.